The Resume: U of L's NCAA tournament profile
Welcome to The Resume, a new feature this season that we'll be doing every week as the NCAA tournament fast approaches. The goal here is to focus specifically on Louisville's tournament profile and assess where the Cardinals stand in terms of seeding in the tournament field.
Last season, I spent a lot of time on seeding and trying to project where Louisville -- and the rest of the teams in college hoops -- would fit into the tournament field. But we never had one place where U of L fans (and other curious hoops fans) could go to look just at Louisville's profile and where the Cardinals stand in the grand scheme of things.
THE PRIMER
Here's the deal: The NCAA tournament selection committee has a group of specific metrics with which it evaluates teams. Let's break down specifically what the selection committee does have on its computer software during the process:
What the committee has on its selection process software: RPI, average opponent RPI, overall record, nonconference RPI, nonconference record, conference record, road/neutral record, strength of schedule, nonconference strength of schedule, opponents' strength of schedule, nonconference opponents' strength of schedule, record vs. RPI top 25, record vs. RPI top 50, record vs. RPI top 100, losses to RPI >150 teams, record vs. NCAA tournament teams, last 15 games.
Related:Louisville has a turnover problem
What committee members can use by choice to inform their thinking, but don't have on the NCAA software: Ken Pomeroy's efficiency ratings, Jeff Sagarin's ratings, AP/Coaches top 25 polls, ESPN's BPI, among other metrics.
This is why I constantly tell people that top 25 polls during the season simply don't matter. You can be No. 1 in the country in the AP and Coaches polls and get a 4 seed. That would be unlikely 99 times out of 100 -- or maybe 999 times out of 1,000 -- but it's possible.
WORKING LOUISVILLE'S RESUME
So Louisville took a bit of a hit to its NCAA tournament profile on Saturday, didn't it? Before losing to NC State 74-65, U of L had a relatively clean tourney resume. No, the Cardinals don't have a big road win to their profile -- just a really solid neutral-floor victory over Indiana -- but they also didn't have any "bad" losses. Of their four losses, none of the opponents ranked outside the RPI top 10. Until now.
But perhaps the "hit" to Louisville's resume isn't actually as bad as it may seem. NC State is 45th in RPI now, which means that Louisville still doesn't have a dreaded sub-RPI-top-50 loss that looks like a mountain of a pimple of just about anyone's resume. Instead, U of L is 5-5 vs. the RPI top 50, with two RPI top 30 games left on the schedule. That said, the games against Miami and Syracuse may not be RPI top 50 games at the time, but the ranking system is fluid. Like we've seen with Pitt and now NC State, what could be a sub-top-50 loss (or win) at the time could end up being a top-50 result after all.
THE NUMBERS
Overall record: 20-5.
RPI: 15.
Strength of schedule: 30.
Conference record: 8-4.
Road/neutral record: 7-2.
Nonconference strength of schedule: 104.
Nonconference RPI: 9.
Nonconference record: 12-1.
Opponents' strength of schedule: 19.
Record vs. RPI top 25: 1-4.
Record vs. RPI top 50: 5-5.
Record vs. RPI top 100: 8-5.
Losses to RPI >150 teams: 0.
Record vs. NCAA tournament teams (using ESPN's Bracketology: 3-5.
Last 15 games: 11-4.