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CARDINALS

Inside Terry Rozier's offensive emergence

Jeff Greer
Louisville Courier Journal
Louisville's Terry Rozier goes up for a layup during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game against Western Kentucky Saturday, Dec. 20, 2014, in Bowling Green, Ky.

After two strong performances to start the season, Louisville guard Terry Rozier slumped.

His shooting percentages dipped and his turnover rate climbed. Louisville coach Rick Pitino worried that the offensive woes were eating away at Rozier and affecting his defense.

Related:U of L readies for Northridge without Harrell

Rozier, who'd received quite a bit of preseason buzz from draft analysts, hardly looked like a potential first-round NBA draft pick. He still spoke with confidence, but his body language in games implied he'd lost some of the moxie that made him such an impressive freshman last season and such a promising prospect in the first two games this winter.

But five games ago, the 6-foot-1 guard reversed his early-season struggles. Rather emphatically, in fact. So much so that "pretty damn good" was all could Pitino say when informed of Rozier's stats over the past five games.

THE NUMBERS*

Last five games: 17 of 27 on layups, dunks and tips (62.9%); 7 of 16 on 2-point jumpers (43.8%); 10 of 23 on 3-pointers (43.4%); 34 of 66 overall (51.5%); 27 of 34 on free throws (79.4%); 127 offensive rating.

Previous four before that: 9 of 16 on layups, dunks and tips (56.2%); 4 of 14 on 2-point jumpers (28.6%); 3 of 16 on 3-pointers (18.6%); 16 of 46 overall (34.8%); 13 of 20 free throws (65%); 88.3 offensive rating.

*** Adefinition of offensive rating from KenPom: It's essentially one of the most accurate measures of player efficiency, developed by stat guru Dean Oliver.

Perhaps the most impressive part of Rozier's playing style is how he distributes his shots: Of his 130 shot attempts, 38.5 percent have come on tips, layups and dunks, 30 percent are 2-point jumpers and an equal 31.5 percent are 3-pointers. He draws 5.9 fouls per 40 minutes, the second-highest rate among Louisville's key players behind Montrezl Harrell, and has one of the top FTA-to-FGA rates in the country (49.2 percent).

He's at his best in transition, where his effective field-goal percentage rises by 5.4 percent and his 3-point shooting improves by 10.5 percentage points. It couldn't be clearer that he is the key to Louisville's chances against Kentucky. More on that in the next section.

(Before we continue, it's fair to note that it hasn't been all bunnies and rainbows for Rozier, though his improved shooting has far outweighed the following caveat ... For a guard who'll likely have to play point (or lead) in the NBA and be on the ball a lot, Rozier's 2.3-to-2.1 turnover-assist ratio is a bit troubling. Most of his turnovers come during attacking moments, which Pitino wants his star guard to take. But Rozier's struggled to offset the turnovers with attacking assists, with only two games with five or more assists. What's puzzling is his turnover rate last season was just 0.6 per game against 1.8 assists.)

* - Numbers from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and a little ol' gadget I like to call my own research.

THE BREAKDOWN

ESPN analyst and former Virginia Tech coach Seth Greenberg detailed why he thinks Rozier's playing so well of late: "It takes time adjusting to life without (All-American guard Russ Smith). We all want it to happen immediately, but it just doesn't work like that."

I asked Greenberg a fairly obvious question, but his answer's worth noting here. What does Rozier's much-improved shooting percentage do for his offense?

"When you're not making shots, the defense plays you as a driver," Greenberg said. "As a coach, you know you can't take away everything a guy does. You try to take one element of his game out of the equation. But if you ... make him a jump shooter and he's making them, he's tough to defend."

Related:Is Louisville the last team that can beat UK?

What Greenberg specifically likes about Rozier's game is the Ohio native's ability to attack angles and cracks in opposing defenses, something that made Smith so valuable to Louisville before his graduation. Rozier runs at unbalanced closeouts, which come when a defender comes out to challenge a shooter but commits to an angle that gives the shooter an alley to run by him. Rozier also uses shot-fake drives to get defenders off balance or in the air and then hustle into the lane.

"Just like he did with Russ, (Pitino) has given (Rozier) the rope," Greenberg said. "He has the freedom to play his game."

THE KENTUCKY ELEMENT

Which brings us to the Kentucky game. I've pegged Rozier (and fellow guard Chris Jones) as the most important player for Louisville in the Cards' toughest matchup of the season. If Louisville wants to win, or keep it within arm's reach into the game's final moments, Rozier and Jones must be able to create turnovers, get points in transition and break down UK's halfcourt defense with dribble penetration.

Greenberg agreed.

"(Rozier's) ability to attack and disrupt could be a difference maker," he said. "The teams that try to get to the rim and attack the front of the rim in the halfcourt offense have not had success (against UK) ... The problem against UK is not the primary shot blocker. It's the help guy who's another big kid who can slide over and block the shot."

So when that happens off Rozier and Jones driving, they have to find open guys on the perimeter and limit their turnovers. And those open guys have to hit their shots or start a ball rotation that leads to an open shot. It's a cliche, but it applies here: That strategy is a lot easier said than done.