Jeff Greer's NCAA tournament bracket
It's that time of year again, and I, for one, couldn't be more excited about it. Kentucky enters as the strong favorite to win it all, but I also think there are a ton of really good teams that can test the Wildcats on a night-in, night-out basis once they get through the first weekend.
As for the rest of the field, I'm intrigued to see which Louisville team shows up. The Cardinals have potential to make a run, but they also have potential to collapse. They've had some clunkers this season, even when Chris Jones was on the roster. I do think that the longer they play and practice without Jones, the better and more cohesive they'll be. They'll be a really interesting team to follow these next few weeks.
As for the ACC, NC State is a real threat to Villanova in the second round -- if NC State plays the way it can. The problem with that is there's a good chance NC State doesn't. That's usually when they lose, and sometimes lose big (see Duke last week). Also: Villanova is really, really good.
I really like Virginia still. They defend. They can shoot a little bit. But most of all, they are disciplined and well-coached. I have them making a run. I don't think Duke's defense is good enough, and that will bite the Devils. Beyond those two, UNC has a chance to win a few games if the Heels keep it together, but Notre Dame seems best suited to get to a regional final and play for a Final Four spot.
Related:The good, the bad, the iffy matchups in U of L's region
Anyway, here are my picks for this year's bracket. I made them Sunday night and decided to stick with them. Usually I spend a few sleepless nights reading KenPom and fidgeting over upsets. Not this time.
Louisville: I have the Cardinals beating UC-Irvine by about 10 and finding a way past a really, really good Northern Iowa team that, by KenPom standards, would be Louisville's second-best win of the season. But I am one of the believers in Villanova, so I think the Sweet 16 is where Rick Pitino's squad falters.
Final Four: Wisconsin, Kentucky, Virginia and Gonzaga. I love the contrast in style that we'd see in Virginia-Gonzaga, and Kentucky-Wisconsin would be an amped-up rematch of last year's Final Four. That was a great game.
Champion: Kentucky over Virginia in a 60-55 slugfest.
Cinderella: I am not going to call Wichita State, one of the most successful hoops programs in the country the past few years, a Cinderella, but I do have the Shockers in the Sweet 16. I also like BYU to get to the Sweet 16. Providence is a 6, but I've got the Friars into the second weekend. And I also have Eastern Washington and Wofford pulling off upsets in the opening round, mostly because I think the teams they're playing -- Georgetown and Arkansas, respectively -- are paper tigers.
Biggest upset: I'll be honest: I toyed with Albany over Oklahoma, Georgia State over Baylor and New Mexico State over Kansas, but I'm just not willing to pull the trigger on any of those. I guess Eastern Washington, a 13 seed, is my biggest upset.
Toughest pick: We roll the dice any time we pick an 8-9 game, but I really had trouble with NC State and LSU. These two teams ... Where do we even start? They are both so unpredictable. They could both show up and play a thriller. They could both play terrible and have a clunker. One could blow out the other. I just don't know with that one. I also think Utah has a heck of a time with Stephen F. Austin before going on a run, and I wouldn't be all that surprised to see Valparaiso scare the daylights out of Maryland.