No. 1 Wildcats a lock? Experts weigh in
LEXINGTON, Ky. – This is one of those games and top-ranked Kentucky knows it. Loves it. The Wildcats are closing in on history, three wins away from becoming the first major-conference team since 1976 to go undefeated in the regular season, but 18th-ranked Arkansas is coming to town Saturday.
This could be the one. They know that's what many are saying, just as many did when Kentucky played ranked Kansas, Texas, North Carolina and Louisville teams earlier this season. The Cats (28-0, 15-0 SEC) rose to meet the hype in each instance and played some of their best basketball in those games. The average winning margin was 16.5 points.
"When we hear that a team's going to challenge us – maybe could beat us in some aspects – we take that personally," freshman forward Trey Lyles said. "We want to go out there and show those people that said that differently."
Among remaining challengers, the Razorbacks (23-5, 12-3) are a logical pick to pull the upset. They've won seven straight, play at a punishing pace, average almost 80 points per game, have a 6-foot-11 future first-round NBA draft pick in Bobby Portis and swept Kentucky in two games last season.
They beat the Wildcats in Rupp Arena, where John Calipari has lost only three other times in six seasons at the helm.
"They will not be in awe of us. They won't be intimidated. They'll come in with some confidence," UK assistant coach Kenny Payne said. "But we will, too. We'll come in knowing that we're a different team, that we're going to get after them just like they're going to get after us."
Lyles has noticed the team's veteran players – and its staff – talking a lot this week about the bitter taste still lingering from last season's losses to Arkansas.
"They definitely remember," he said. "The guys might have a little bit more for this game (because) nobody wants to lose to them again, the players or the coaches. Everybody's just pretty much getting energized for it."
After all, this is one of those games. One that these Cats, who've won their last four games by a combined 105 points, might actually lose. That's what they're saying, anyway, and Kentucky is listening.
"We're aware," freshman guard Devin Booker said. "We lock in when we hear that. All the big games, we come out and we perform."
Of course, coaches try to convince their teams that none are bigger than others, to play them all with the same gusto. But it's getting harder with the Wildcats, who know better by now.
"Every game we play, we're telling them that we're playing a good team," Payne said. "When they win, they say, 'I thought you said they were good.' (Arkansas) will be a very, very good team coming in here, a team that's capable of beating us."
That begs the question: Who else is? The Courier-Journal surveyed eight national college basketball writers and broadcasters with two simple questions: Who is the biggest threat to beat Kentucky before the NCAA Tournament – meaning hypothetical SEC Tournament matchups are allowed – and which team would be the toughest matchup in the Big Dance?
Arkansas, Georgia, Wisconsin, Duke and Gonzaga are the only teams who got a vote of (some) confidence against the Cats. Kentucky can mark its "big game" calendar accordingly. Here's the rationale behind each pick:
JAY BILAS, ESPN analyst (former Duke player)
Before the NCAA Tournament: "I frankly don't see anybody beating them. If Kentucky plays well, then they're going to win. You don't always play well, but nobody else has shown the capacity to win without playing their best; Kentucky is the only team that's done that. Arkansas probably has the best opportunity because of the makeup of their team – they're athletic, got a little bit of size, an interior scorer – but even then I think it's going to be a difficult task."
In the Dance: "Teams that can control tempo and are really good defensive rebounding teams, so Wisconsin, Virginia, teams like that I think would give them the hardest time. I'd say Wisconsin, but if Kentucky plays them like Maryland did and just isolate them and drive them, I don't think Wisconsin can stay in front of them."
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PAT FORDE, Yahoo! Sports writer
Before the NCAA Tournament: "I'll say Arkansas is the biggest threat. Having them in Rupp is a great advantage. If they play them in the SEC Tournament, while Nashville is Rupp South, it at least would be a little more of an equal playing court. I don't expect anybody to beat them, but I would say Arkansas has the best chance. I think it's athletes – Bobby Portis, who is not just a great player but has great size – and a style of play that has been a bit problematic for the Harrisons, Andrew Harrison specifically, in the past."
In the Dance: "I want to say Wisconsin, but I'm not liking the way they played against Maryland. I'll say Duke. Duke has talent that compares to Kentucky, has enough size, has athleticism and has a great coach. I sure wouldn't favor Duke against them, but I think they may have the best chance to beat them."
DICK VITALE, ESPN broadcaster (former coach)
Before the NCAA Tournament: "Georgia because of the tempo, the pace, and the confidence they'll probably play with knowing they played them tough the first time without their star, (Marcus) Thornton. He's playing now."
In the Dance: "Gonzaga has an experienced backcourt, they've got size, they rotate guys, and then Kyle Wiltjer has become more than just a 3-point shooter. He has really refined his game. I think the drama of a game like that – Wiltjer playing against his former school – if there's one matchup I'd like to see, it would be Gonzaga and Kentucky."
GARY PARRISH, CBS writer
Before the NCAA Tournament: "I personally believe Kentucky will enter Selection Sunday with a perfect record, if only because I think the toughest tests are behind the Wildcats. That said, the Georgia game is the spot where a loss is most likely. That's a road game against a likely NCAA Tournament team, and those types of games are often tricky. Still, I'd make UK a double-digit favorite at Georgia, meaning a loss there, or anywhere before the NCAA Tournament, will be a massive upset and huge surprise."
In the Dance: "I plan to pick Kentucky to win the national title, barring another significant injury, meaning I genuinely believe the Wildcats will finish 40-0. I think they'll go unbeaten. But they're not unbeatable, and the type of team that could catch them is Duke. The Blue Devils have multiple ballhandlers (Tyus Jones and Quinn Cook) who are comfortable on big stages, a pro wing (Justise Winslow) and a big (Jahlil Okafor) better than any one of Kentucky's bigs. Duke shoots nearly 40-percent from 3-point range and is guided by a Hall of Fame coach. So while I'd pick UK over Duke on a neutral court, it certainly wouldn't be Douglas-over-Tyson if the Blue Devils beat the Wildcats in a 40-minute basketball game played in a single-elimination tournament."
JEFF GOODMAN, ESPN writer
Before the NCAA Tournament: "Georgia gave them a pretty good game without Marcus Thornton. I know Trey Lyles was out that game also, but Marcus Thornton probably means more to Georgia than Trey Lyles means to Kentucky. Their best chance of losing is in a true road game and, honestly, the game against Georgia is their last game where they won't have a home-court advantage for the rest of the year. That includes the SEC Tournament and the NCAA Tournament."
In the Dance: "It's Wisconsin, for a couple of reasons. The first is kind of the revenge factor for Wisconsin. That was about as bad a locker room as I've seen, so those guys want another shot. And they know they can play with them – or at least they think they know they can play with them. Number Two is I think you need a big guy and Frank Kaminsky is a tough matchup for Kentucky."
ERIC PRISBELL, USA Today writer
Before the NCAA Tournament: "Arkansas in the SEC Tournament on a neutral court. Arkansas has depth, athleticism and they know that they can beat them. Finally, they've proven they can play well and beat good teams outside of Fayetteville. That's why I think they can really challenge them on a neutral court if they get them in the SEC Tournament."
In the Dance: "I really want to see them against Gonzaga, because Gonzaga has size, has Kyle Wiltjer and Kevin Pangos, who can really play. They're one of the most efficient offensive teams in the country. I think that would be a fantastic matchup in the Final Four or the national championship game. If Gonzaga finally broke through and made the Final Four, I could see them really giving (Kentucky) trouble."
SETH GREENBERG, ESPN analyst (former coach)
Before the NCAA Tournament: "Arkansas because of their style of play and their athleticism and they've got guys that can play in transition and finish and rebound. I don't think they lose in the SEC Tournament, not only because it's basically a home game … but Kentucky's improved so much offensively that if they rebound the ball, no one's beating them."
In the Dance: "Wisconsin because they don't foul, don't give up second shots, don't turn it over and they can make enough threes and have enough size across the front line."
NICOLE AUERBACH, USA Today writer
Before the NCAA Tournament: "I think Georgia is one of the most improved teams in the SEC, it's a road game, and Florida is obviously not Florida of years past, so by default it has to be the Georgia game and that environment. Because I'm sure in the SEC Tournament they're going to have great crowds."
In the Dance: "I'm tempted to say Gonzaga, but I'll make a case for Duke. That may not be one of the trendier matchup picks because of their defensive struggles, but I think the team that can score in bunches and has great shooters like Tyus Jones on the perimeter – and a veteran guy like Quinn Cook, who's not going to get rattled – that might be the recipe. You need to score on Kentucky when you have an open shot, and I watched Duke score (22) points in the final five minutes against Virginia."
Kyle Tucker can be reached at (502) 582-4361. Follow him on Twitter @KyleTucker_CJ.
SATURDAY'S GAME
NO. 18 ARKANSAS AT NO. 1 KENTUCKY
4 p.m., Rupp Arena
TV: CBS Radio: WHAS-840 and WAKY-103.5