7 good UofL matchups, 3 tough ones and a few iffy
Before the NCAA tournament, Louisville coach Rick Pitino tried on several occasions to be as blunt as possible about his team's prospects for the postseason: Everything is about matchups.
So, once the East region was revealed, and Louisville was in it, I set about putting together a list of the good, bad and hard-to-tell matchups for Louisville among the region's other 15 teams.
I looked at the seven teams that beat Louisville this season to come up with what it was about those squads that helped them beat the Cardinals. I settled on four stat categories -- effective height, turnover percentage, 3-point offense and 2-point defense.
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Why those stats?
Well, in Louisville's eight losses this season, the Cards forced turnovers on just 15.8 percent of their opponents' possessions. In wins, that number swells to 23.3 percent. Louisville shot 51.1 percent on 2-pointers in wins and 42.5 percent in losses. The Cards' opponents shot 26.7 percent from 3-point range in Louisville wins and 34 percent in Louisville losses.
So, using those figures, I evaluated the other 15 teams in the East region and came up with this list, which is not in any order. I looked for teams that shoot the 3 well and don't turn it over -- or teams that play solid interior defense and have big lineups.
I should note here: These aren't to say, "Louisville definitely beats these guys" or "Louisville definitely loses here," but I do think Louisville has a better shot at winning in the "good matchups," while the "bad matchups" list indicates a game that might be a bit more of a struggle.
Good matchups for Louisville
Albany/Belmont/Lafayette: The 14 through 16 seeds in the East region all do something well -- shoot 3s. But Albany and Belmont have turnover issues, no size and don't defend 2-pointers all that well. Lafayette actually has a decent statistical profile on offense, but is 338th in the nation in defensive efficiency.
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Providence: If the Friars and Cards meet in the Elite 8, it would (1) be rather surprising and (2) favor Louisville. Why? PC has good size, but turns the ball over a bit too much and doesn't shoot the 3 well. Beyond that, based on the numbers, Louisville would be able to get inside and score. Teams that don't force Louisville to shoot lots of 3-pointers aren't taking advantage of U of L's biggest weakness.
Virginia: I debated this one a lot. It's hard to call a team that already defeated Louisville once this season a "good" matchup, but the teams played twice and split, with the winning margin averaging out to 3.5 points. I have Virginia in my Final Four for a reason: The Cavaliers are a magnificent defensive team and really disciplined. But pair them with Louisville in an Elite 8, and it would be an old-fashioned slugfest that Louisville can win.
LSU: Let's see ... high turnover rate: Check ... bad 3-point shooting team: Check ... Middling defensive rebounding team: Check.
Wyoming: People keep trumpeting Wyoming as a potential upset bid vs. Northern Iowa. I don't ever shoot those theories down because I'd be incredibly dumb doing that -- anything is possible in March. But I do think the Cowboys would be a decent matchup for Louisville: They aren't all that big and they don't shoot the 3 well.
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Georgia: The only thing on the Bulldogs' check list that sticks out is their 2-point defense. Their turnover rate would be a problem against Louisville in what would be a surprising Elite 8 matchup.
Dayton: I think the Flyers' size -- or lack thereof -- would present an interesting challenge to Louisville, but they'd have trouble scoring. Notre Dame they are not.
Hard to tell
Oklahoma: The Sooners and Louisville would play in a rock-fight kind of game. That doesn't favor anyone. They are both really good defensive teams, and neither has an offense that stands out. Call it a pick-em.
Northern Iowa: The Panthers are fantastic shooters and really good defenders. They defensive rebound well. They are a legitimate Final Four contender. Seth Tuttle vs. Montrezl Harrell would be fun to follow. But they can be turned over. I'd give them a slight edge head-to-head vs. U of L, but not enough to call this a "bad matchup."
Boise State: The Broncos don't turn it over and they can shoot it, plus they keep opponents off the offensive glass. But they aren't exactly an impenetrable fortress on defense.
Bad matchups for Louisville
Villanova: Look at the Wildcats' statistical profile, and they look a lot like Notre Dame, except one thing: They aren't big by any stretch, but they can sling it from 3 and they take care of the ball -- and they are much, much better on defense than the Irish. Only two teams have beaten Villanova this season -- Georgetown and Seton Hall -- and both did it by defending the 3 and turning the 'Cats over. So if Louisville can do that, they would have a shot at beating 'Nova, but again, only two teams -- in 34 tries -- did that.
NC State: The Wolfpack would need to pull off a pretty big upset in the second round to even see Louisville, but they'd also have the confidence that they beat them at their place. They do two things well -- they don't turn it over and they play good interior defense. Louisville made 29.5 percent(!) of its 2-pointers in that Feb. 14 loss and only forced turnovers on 12.1 percent of NC State's possessions.
UC-Irvine: I'll be honest -- I think Louisville wins this game by about 10 points because the Cards can offensive rebound against Irvine and Irvine doesn't draw a ton of fouls to get to the free-throw line and neutralize a superior opponent. But the Anteaters do shoot 39 percent from 3, which is 22nd in the nation, and their interior defense, anchored around a 7-foot-6 dude named Mamadou Ndiaye, holds opponents to just 42.3 percent shooting on 2-pointers. They have the seventh-best effective height in college hoops. That will make things tough on Harrell.