The Resume: Does UVA win help U of L seeding?
Welcome to The Resume, a new feature this season that we'll be doing every week as the NCAA tournament fast approaches. The goal here is to focus specifically on Louisville's tournament profile and assess where the Cardinals stand in terms of seeding in the tournament field.
Last season, I spent a lot of time on seeding and trying to project where Louisville -- and the rest of the teams in college hoops -- would fit into the tournament field. But we never had one place where U of L fans (and other curious hoops fans) could go to look just at Louisville's profile and where the Cardinals stand in the grand scheme of things.
So below, you'll find some insight into the selection and seeding process, and today, we'll discuss what kind of impact the win over Virginia can have on Louisville's resume.
PROJECTING LOUISVILLE'S SEED
I strongly recommend perusing the Bracket Matrix to get more than just one bracket projection on your plate. The site averages out seed projections for each team using the myriad bracket projections across the Interwebs. And, for your viewing pleasure, the Bracket Matrix also tells you which bracket prognosticators are actually pretty accurate. Hint: They aren't people you'd know. (My personal favorite, if you're into such things, is my guy Patrick Stevens. Follow him on Twitter here.)
Related:After Virginia win, what's next for U of L?
For Louisville, the average seed seems to be a 4, trending back up after the Virginia victory, but the Cards are probably one of the lower-rated 4 seeds right now, which means the higher-up teams get first crack at a regional close to home. In other words, the way it appears now, there's a chance Louisville could get a 4 but be placed in the West region and, if it gets out of the first weekend, play out in Los Angeles.
WORKING LOUISVILLE'S RESUME
Just looking at the updated computer numbers below tells you most of what you need to know about the importance of beating Virginia and, yes, even losing to Notre Dame. Louisville (24-7) jumped 18 spots in the strength of schedule rankings and added a RPI top-25 win to its ledger. And even playing Notre Dame helps, because the Irish are 25th in RPI and obviously p. good.
If you go by the bracket projections, it's also fair to say that the Virginia win bumped Louisville up a seed line. Of course, as I explain in "the primer" section below, no seeding is done is a vacuum, but beating the sixth-ranked RPI team is always a boost to a team's profile.
Related:Louisville's Mathiang an unlikely hero
Moreover, Louisville should have a shot at another RPI top-15 opponent on Thursday, provided North Carolina takes care of business in the ACC tournament against either Boston College or Georgia Tech. A third RPI top-25 win would be a big help for Louisville early in the NCAA tournament selection committee's seeding process and, quite frankly, even an RPI top-25 loss wouldn't hurt. A fourth top-25 win, if Louisville beats North Carolina on Thursday and then Virginia on Friday, would give the Cards a serious argument for a high-end 4. It might be too late in the game to get a 3, even with a win over, say, Duke or Notre Dame on Saturday after beating North Carolina and Virginia, but maybe not.
Another site I enjoy, TeamRankings.com, offers a "bracketology" projection and gives odds for each seed for Louisville. Right now, according to whatever algorithm they use, there's a 29-percent chance U of L gets a 4 seed. The second-highest percentage is 26 -- for a 5 seed. The odds for a 3 seed are 15 percent; the odds for 6 seed are 15.1 percent.
THE PRIMER
Here's the deal: The NCAA tournament selection committee has a group of specific metrics (and other factors) with which it evaluates teams. Let's break down specifically what the selection committee does have on its computer software during the process:
What the committee has on its selection process software: RPI, average opponent RPI, overall record, nonconference RPI, nonconference record, conference record, road/neutral record, strength of schedule, nonconference strength of schedule, opponents' strength of schedule, nonconference opponents' strength of schedule, record vs. RPI top 25, record vs. RPI top 50, record vs. RPI top 100, losses to RPI >150 teams, record vs. NCAA tournament teams, last 15 games.
Get your printable ACC tournament bracket here.
What committee members can use by choice to inform their thinking, but don't have on the NCAA software: Ken Pomeroy's efficiency ratings, Jeff Sagarin's ratings, AP/Coaches top 25 polls, ESPN's BPI, among other metrics.
This is why I constantly tell people that top 25 polls during the season simply don't matter. You can be No. 1 in the country in the AP and Coaches polls and get a 4 seed. That would be unlikely 99 times out of 100 -- or maybe 999 times out of 1,000 -- but it's possible.
LOUISVILLE'S NUMBERS
* - we use the NCAA's RPI numbers for this information.
Overall record: 24-7.
RPI: 17.
Strength of schedule: 18.
Conference record: 12-6.
Road/neutral record: 9-3.
Nonconference strength of schedule: 108.
Nonconference RPI: 25.
Nonconference record: 12-1.
Opponents' strength of schedule: 25.
Record vs. RPI top 25: 2-5.
Record vs. RPI top 50: 3-6.
Record vs. RPI top 100: 10-7.
Losses to RPI >150 teams: 0.
Record vs. NCAA tournament teams (using ESPN's Bracketology): 4-6.
Last 15 games: 10-5.