A guide to U of L's NCAA tourney region
The East region has become this NCAA tournament's most intriguing bracket, if only because neither of the top two seeds remain in competition for a Final Four spot. Instead, two power conference teams, Michigan State and NC State, turned the region on its head by upsetting Virginia and Villanova, respectively.
The result? A Louisville-NC State rematch in the first regional semifinal at the Carrier Dome in Syracuse at 7:37 p.m. Friday, and a Michigan State-Oklahoma showdown in the second. Story lines abound with this group, from the potential Rick Pitino-Tom Izzo pairing in the regional final to the all-ACC regional semi matchup. And how about Oklahoma, the highest seed of the group, seemingly receiving the least amount of buzz?
Let's run through each team. What makes them good? How can they advance? How might they fall? And what are their best and worst-case scenarios?
LOUISVILLE
Seed: 4. Record: 26-8. Conference finish: Fourth, ACC. Path to the Sweet 16: Beat UC-Irvine, 57-55; then Northern Iowa, 66-53.
What makes U of L tick? The Cardinals this season are built around three things: Some of the best field-goal defense in the country; wing scorers Terry Rozier and Wayne Blackshear; and Montrezl Harrell's offensive rebounding, energy and hard finishes. If Louisville can continue hitting Rick Pitino's 35 deflections goal for each game, the Cards usually win. That, more than anything else, is how U of L can advance to the Elite 8 and Final Four.
How might they fall? Louisville is prone to poor shooting nights, and no game better illustrated that than a 74-65 loss to NC State back on Feb. 14. Louisville made just 29.5 of its 2-pointers in that game and tied a season-low with 16 points in the paint. If the Cards can't score, they have to win a rock fight, and some teams, like Michigan State and NC State, are better than others at scoring.
Best/worst scenarios: In the best case, Louisville rolls past NC State in a revenge game, limiting Cat Barber and finding a still-hot Rozier. Then, in the Elite 8, Louisville grinds past a physical Michigan State team by creating turnovers and getting Harrell going underneath. In the worst case, Louisville's scoring problem manifests itself in the Sweet 16 and NC State once again dominates the paint, with Cat Barber doing damage on the perimeter.
NC STATE
Seed: 8. Record: 22-13. Conference finish: Sixth, ACC. Path to the Sweet 16: Beat LSU, 66-65; then Villanova 71-68.
What makes NC State tick? The Wolfpack has struggled on defense all season, but in the NCAA tournament, things changed. LSU didn't turn the ball over much, and neither did Villanova, but both teams couldn't hit a shot. Paired with Barber, the point guard, peaking in March, NC State's interior defense makes the Wolfpack tough to beat on their best day.
How might they fall? Few teams left in the tournament have been as inconsistent as NC State. The 'Pack is talented enough to beat teams like Villanova, and it is mercurial enough to get blown out by them. If the moody 'Pack shows up, Louisville or a regional final opponent can bulldoze them.
Best/worst scenarios: By far the best-case scenario is another pair of electric Barber performances in tandem with that paint D, which helps NC State beat Louisville a second time and then reach the Final Four.
MICHIGAN STATE
Seed: 7. Record: 25-11. Conference finish: Third, Big Ten. Path to the Sweet 16: Beat Georgia, 70-63; then Virginia, 60-54.
What makes Michigan State tick? The Spartans have one of the most efficient offenses in the nation, predicated on a high assist rate and good 3-point shooting. They haven't been awesome on defense this season, but in their two NCAA tournament games, opponents are shooting just 31.6 percent.
How might they fall? In Michigan State's losses this season, one stat sticks out: Opponents' effective field-goal percentage, which adds weight to 3-pointers in determining the final number, is 52.7. That's 7.7 percentage points above Sparty's season average.
Best/worst scenarios: Best-case scenario is simple -- roll past Oklahoma with that same solid defense and good, efficient offense -- low turnovers and solid 3-point shooting -- then do the same in the Elite 8.
OKLAHOMA
Seed: 3. Record: 24-10. Conference finish: Second, Big 12. Path to the Sweet 16: Beat Albany, 69-60; then Dayton, 72-66.
What makes Oklahoma tick? The Sooners, like Louisville, have one of the nation's top defenses and a sometimes frustrating offense. At its peak, Oklahoma is a bear to score on despite playing an up-tempo style.
How might they fall? When Oklahoma loses, that average offense is typically to blame. The Sooners don't get to the foul line and they don't offensive rebound. And to make matters worse, they have some games where opponents get their fair share of second-chance opportunities off the offensive glass.
Best/worst scenarios: Oklahoma enters the Sweet 16 as the highest seed in the region, so smothering back-to-back opponents and reaching the Final Four would be in line with what they were expected to do. Worst case, though, is a maddening performance against Michigan State, where the Sooners can't score and Michigan State shoots just well enough to beat them.