Breeders' Cup Spotlight: Mile on turf
BREEDERS’ CUP SPOTLIGHT: MILE ON TURF
Post time: 3:30 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 31 at Keeneland.
Purse: $2 million.
Division: 3-year-olds & up
Distance: One mile on turf.
TV: NBC Sports Network.
Radio/livestreaming: Horse Racing Radio Network, including 93.9-FM in Louisville, Sirius/XM 93 and horseracingradio.net.
The favorite: When in doubt, go European, and France’s Andre Fabre is always a great place to start. Keeneland oddsmaker Mike Battaglia calls it a “flip of the coin” whether he favors the Fabre-trained Make Believe, a 3-year-old colt who is 4-for-6, or his stablemate Esoterique, a 5-year-old mare who comes into the race off victories in two of Europe’s most important mile races: France’s Jacques Le Marois (over males) and England’s Sun Chariot (against fillies).
Other Europeans: The French are in full force, with Karakontie, the 2014 Mile winner at 30-1 odds, back and Impassable, winner of three straight but making his Grade I debut. Karakontie has not been in his best form in two starts this year. But remember that he had been crushed in his two races before last year’s Mile. England is represented by the Woodbine Mile winner Mondialiste and the consistent Time Test, while Irish kingpin Aidan O’Brien sends out minor winner War Envoy.
American contingent: Fillies and mares do well in the Mile, and one of the best is the Mark Casse-trained Tepin, whose only two defeats in her last six races have been by a head and nose at Saratoga before winning Keeneland’s First Lady by seven. Keeneland’s Shadwell Mile winner Grand Arch has never been better than at age 6 and loves Keeneland’s turf. Mshawish has turned heads in training at Keeneland, and he’ll be a good price. Another value horse is Tourist, who makes his third start after being off 10 months since finishing 13th in the 2014 Mile. After a dominant return in the Kentucky Downs’ More Than Ready Stakes, Tourist was wide on the first turn of Keeneland’s Shadwell Turf Mile before rallying to take third by a total of a neck. Obviously, who finished fifth in the Mile the last two years, is the one to catch.
Worth noting: The Downey Profile (thedowneyprofile.com) notes that the last six winners and eight of the last nine have come out of either France’s seven-furlong Prix de La Foret (Make Believe), Keeneland’s Shadwell Turf Mile (Grand Arch, Tourist) and Canada’s Woodbine Mile (Mondialiste, Lea, Obviously). And only two of those eight won their prior race, good news for Tourist, Lea and Obviously. It is very difficult to win at a mile over Keeneland’s turf on the lead. Playing this elimination game, trainer Bill Mott can win with either Tourist or Lea.