Poll: Paul, Clinton tied in potential Ky. race

• Sen. Rand Paul would have only an even chance of defeating Democrat Hillary Clinton in a general election in Kentucky
• Paul would be the clear choice of Kentucky Republicans if the presidential primary were held today
• Poll showed slightly more than half of Republican voters agree with Paul's decision to run for both the Senate and the presidency in 2016

Sen. Rand Paul would be the clear choice of Kentucky Republicans if the presidential primary were held today but, among registered voters, would have only an even chance of defeating Democrat Hillary Clinton in a general election, according to the latest Bluegrass Poll.

The poll, conducted by SurveyUSA, found 26 percent of 517 Republicans certain to vote in Tuesday's primary would choose Paul over 11 other GOP candidates. That's far ahead of 15 percent for former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, 12 percent for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and 10 percent for Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker. Eight other Republican presidential contenders are in single digits.

The survey was conducted for The Courier-Journal, WHAS-TV, the Lexington Herald-Leader and WKYT-TV. It interviewed 2,400 Kentuckians between May 5 and May 10. Of those, 517 were Republicans who said they are certain to vote in next week's primary. The Republican voter sample has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

But when all 2,104 registered voters in the sample were asked whom they would vote for if Paul and Clinton are the only candidates in a general election next year, 45 percent said Paul and 45 percent Clinton.

That question, because of the larger sample, has a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points.

Paul campaign spokesman Sergio Gor said of the results, "Sen. Paul is leading Hillary Clinton in most credible polls in key states, and he is the best candidate to beat her in a general election."

Gor also said if the Bluegrass Poll's "past work is any indication of (its) credibility, Kentucky's senators would be Jack Conway and Alison Lundergan Grimes."

Also, the poll showed slightly more than half of Republican voters agree with Paul's decision to run for both the Senate and the presidency in 2016. Yet a bit more than half said they prefer that Kentucky stick with its traditional primary election system for selecting its nominee for president rather than change to a caucus process that would allow Paul to run for both offices next year.

Pam Myers, 34, a substitute teacher from Bullitt County and one of the Republicans interviewed in the survey, said she would vote for Paul in both the primary and general elections. "I agree pretty much with all of his policies, and I like the way he presents himself," Myers said. "It doesn't really have anything to do with him being from Kentucky."

Eva Breedlove, 66, a retired teacher from Burkesville, said she likes Paul and would vote for him in the general election. "But in a primary I would pick (Florida Senator) Marco Rubio. I think the party needs a new face who would have a good chance to win in the general election," she said.

Jerry Lundergan, former Kentucky Democratic Party chairman and Clinton's closest political ally in Kentucky, said he is "quite pleased, but not really surprised" that the poll put Clinton even with Paul in a possible general election matchup.

Lundergan noted that Clinton's husband, Bill Clinton, won Kentucky in the general election both times he ran for president and is the last Democrat to win Kentucky in a presidential race. And he said Kentucky voters see her as a much stronger and effective advocate for the working class than they do the man she worked for as U.S. secretary of state — Barack Obama, who is highly unpopular in the state.

Steve Robertson, chairman of the Republican Party of Kentucky, said it is too early to get a solid reading on the 2016 general election for president. The poll's results reflect factors such as Hillary Clinton's high name recognition, the fact she's running with no major opposition among Democrats, and that registered Democrats in the state outnumber registered Republicans, he said.

"I look forward to having Hillary Clinton as the Democratic nominee for president because when the conversation about the presidential race really begins, I believe the voters in the commonwealth of Kentucky are not going to like her views," Robertson said.

Paul has decided to run next year both for re-election to the Senate and election as president. Because Kentucky law allows a candidate's name to appear on the ballot for only one office, the Republican Party of Kentucky is developing a plan to replace its traditional primary election in late May with a presidential preference caucus earlier in 2016.

Robertson said a final decision on switching to a caucus process — with full details on how that process would work — will be made by the party's central committee on Aug. 22.

In the Bluegrass Poll, 52 percent of Republicans surveyed said they agree with Paul's decision to seek both offices next year. But 25 percent said he should run for Senate only, 11 percent said president only, 8 percent said he should run for neither, and 5 percent said they were not sure. This is an improvement for Paul since the last Bluegrass Poll in March when only 23 percent supported his running for both offices.

The new poll showed 53 percent of Republicans want Kentucky to select its nominee for president through the traditional May primary, with 34 percent saying they favor a caucus process, and 13 percent said they were unsure.

Reporter Tom Loftus can be reached at (502) 875-5136. Follow him on Twitter at @TomLoftus_CJ.

ABOUT THE POLL

THE BLUEGRASS POLL® is based on surveys conducted May 5 to 10 with 2,104 Kentucky registered voters by SurveyUSA. Of the registered voters, 517 were determined to be likely to vote in the May 19 Republican primary, while 707 were determined to be likely to vote in the Democratic primary. The poll was conducted for The Courier-Journal, WHAS-TV, the Lexington Herald-Leader and WKYT-TV in Lexington.

Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home phone were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

The margin of error for the polled questions was plus or minus 4.4 percentage points for the Republican questions and 3.5 to 3.7 percentage points for the Democratic questions. When all registered voters are respondents to a question, the margin of error is plus or minus 2.2 percentage points. In theory, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results would not vary by more than the stated margin of sampling error, in one direction or the other, had all respondents with telephones been interviewed with complete accuracy.

In addition to these sampling errors, the practical difficulties of conducting any survey can also influence the results.

Republishing or broadcasting the poll's results without credit to The Courier-Journal, WHAS-TV, the Lexington Herald-Leader and WKYT-TV is prohibited.