Breeders' Cup Spotlight: $2 million Juvenile
BREEDERS’ CUP SPOTLIGHT: JUVENILE
Date: Saturday, Oct. 31 at Keeneland.
Purse: $2 million
Division: 2-year-old colts & geldings
Distance: 1 1/16 miles
TV: NBC Sports Network
Radio/streaming: Horse Racing Radio Network, including 93.9-FM and 680-AM in Louisville and horseracingradio.net.
The favorite: Brody’s Cause went from being a maiden winner at 33-1 odds, to Keeneland’s Grade I Keeneland’s Breeders’ Futurity winner at 11-1 to the possible Breeders’ Cup Juvenile favorite. Daily Racing Form lists his odds at 4-1 over Belmont’s Champagne winner Greenpointcrusader (9-2) and Santa Anita’s FrontRunner winner Nyquist (5-1) in what should be an outstanding betting race.
There’s a lot to recommend in the top three. The Dale Romans-trained Brody’s Cause has a lot of upside, with a race over the track and a late-running style that should serve him well in the Juvenile and beyond to next year. Greenpointcrusader, the 4 ½-length Champagne winner, on BRIS speed figures is the faster horse right now but hasn’t faced as tough of competition as Brody’s Cause. Nyquist is 4-for-4 with a lot of speed but probably doesn’t want to run as far as Brody’s Cause or Greenpointcrusader. A big key is how his form translates from the often speed-conducive California tracks to Keeneland.
Value abounds: With square prices on the favorites, horses who ran well behind them offer terrific value. Those include Breeders’ Futurity runner-up Exaggerator and Swipe (second in his last three starts to Nyquist) for trainer Keith Desormeaux, who won last year’s Juvenile with Texas Red, third in his final prep. Swipe looks like a horse who really will appreciate a change of venue. Romans loves Unbridled Outlaw, who had a lot of trouble when third in Churchill Downs’ Iroquois. Cocked and Loaded, the Iroquois winner, worked very well at Keeneland and could win at a big price. Mark Casse is extremely high on Conquest Big E, who earned a shot at the Juvenile with a big Keeneland maiden win and big workout at Churchill Downs. Such maiden winners have won the Juvenile in their next start (see Action This Day at 26-1 and New Year’s Day at 10-1).
Worth knowing: Crushing The Cup (available through proghandicap.com) notes that only three horses won the Juvenile off a sprint race but that there seems little difference whether the horse last ran at a mile or 1 1/16 miles. CTC loves a pattern where a horse earned its best Beyer speed figure in the prior race and also makes a jump when stretching out from a sprint. The Champagne is the leading Juvenile prep, producing eight winners. The Juvenile’s average win payoff has been $17, third-lowest of all the Cup races. Looking ahead: Street Sense (2006-2007) remains the only Juvenile victor to capture the Kentucky Derby. Hansen, the 2011 Juvenile winner, is the only horse since then to even run in the Churchill Downs’ classic.