WILDCATS

Final Fourcast: Experts like 2015-16 Wildcats

Kyle Tucker
@KyleTucker_CJ

LEXINGTON, Ky. – Now that the dust has settled and John Calipari has worked his recruiting magic again, it's time to begin pondering the annual question: How good could Kentucky basketball be this season?

ESPN analyst Jay Bilas, CBS national reporter Gary Parrish and Hall of Fame hoops writer Mike DeCourcy of the Sporting News all tend to agree on the answer.

"I mean, they're going to be great again, you know?" Parrish said. "You can make the case – I wonder if people will be scared to do it, because there's an obvious backlash every time – that they should be preseason No. 1 if you just look at the talent on the roster."

Prized Canadian guard Jamal Murray signed with the Wildcats last week, giving Calipari six former five-star recruits with which to work in 2015-16. Only Duke (seven) has more. Among teams that will round out most preseason top-five rankings, Kansas has five former five-stars and Maryland and North Carolina have three each.

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And to think, Kentucky fans were worried about recruiting this year. Murray erased all the disappointment of a half-dozen elite prospects picking other programs this spring.

"I thought he was exactly what they needed to push them over to being a contender for a championship," DeCourcy said, "with his ability to play basically all three perimeter positions, to attack off the bounce, to make a shot. He has a great basketball IQ from what we can see. I think that he adds a lot."

Murray is one of five Cats projected by DraftExpress.com to be picked in next year's NBA Draft. No other program has more. Freshmen Skal Labissiere (No. 1), Murray (No. 16), Isaiah Briscoe (No. 19) and junior Marcus Lee (No. 29) are all slotted in the first round, with senior Alex Poythress (No. 57) in the second.

"They don't have as much experience coming back, but they have really, really good talent again. So they'll be right there," Bilas said. "They don't have as many players, but they do have returning players. That's important. Any time you've got a team with players that have been there before and done it before, it's important for the locker room, for practice, in drills. When coaches don't have to teach everybody everything, it makes it a little bit easier."

So does having an elite point guard, and Kentucky has three in Murray, Briscoe and sophomore Tyler Ulis, another former five-star recruit who helped the Cats go 38-1 last season. The 5-8 Ulis, smallest of them all, will probably be the primary point with the other two flanking him on either side in a three-guard lineup that could make UK an offensive terror.

"They can be really dynamic," DeCourcy said. "I think that Tyler Ulis is probably the most complete point guard at the offensive end that they've had at Kentucky. He can do everything that you want a point guard to do. He can penetrate, he can pass, he can see the floor, he can organize, he can make deep shots, he can push the ball in transition.

"They've had really good, special players that had great talent in particular areas – John Wall's athleticism and Brandon Knight's shooting and on and on – but this kid does a little bit of everything really well. And I think that's a great start for a productive offense."

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After all that gushing, one might actually forget that seven of Kentucky's best players from last season are on NBA rosters now. Four of those were lottery picks, including No. 1 overall Karl-Anthony Towns. And the Cats could still win it all this season?

"Nobody else could do what (Calipari) is doing," Parrish said. "Nobody else could lose seven players and reload. But what's even crazier is that two months ago, we would've thought they'd get at least one more marquee guy. When you talk about losing seven guys and then talk about reloading a roster that might be the best in the country, and then say, 'You know what? It could've been even better,' that's a testament to what he's got going on right now."

This is not exactly a new phenomenon for the Cats, even if it is the biggest rebuild yet.

"In a way, it's more of the same," Bilas said. "One of the great things about Kentucky is that they've been different every year. They've been the same in many ways, but they've been different every year. I think that's great."

Calipari's first UK team had two top-five picks, three guys in the lottery and five first-rounders in 2010. The Wildcats still reached the Final Four in 2011. This situation reminds DeCourcy of that one.

"And it could be a team like 2011, that maybe even though we put them (top five) in the preseason, it takes them a while to get to that," he said. "That wouldn't surprise me at all, because of the youth at the center spot and the fact that Murray's going to have to be special and you're counting on a junior-college player to be productive. So it may take them a little while … but I still think they'll be one of the teams that can win a title."

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That's as much about the competition as it is about Kentucky. Bilas, Parrish and DeCourcy all agree that the field won't be as strong this season.

"This is a lot like 2011 or 2014, where I don't think there's going to be any teams that are really special, just extraordinary," DeCourcy said. "Any one of four teams from last season, if transplanted into this year, would be the overwhelming favorite against this field. Arizona, Kentucky, Wisconsin and Duke would be just an absolute runaway favorite if they had last year's team in this season."

So that brings us back to the question: How good can Kentucky be in 2015-16? Parrish is considering the Wildcats, Jayhawks, Terrapins and Tar Heels for his preseason No. 1 ranking. It'll be a close call.

"I will have (UK) no lower than No. 3," he said. "I like Maryland's roster, I like Carolina's roster, I like Kansas' roster. But if you believe in Murray and Skal – if you think Murray and Skal are going to be great – then you could reasonably put them No. 1. And I might."

Kyle Tucker can be reached at (502) 582-4361. Follow him on Twitter @KyleTucker_CJ.

FIVE-STAR RECRUITS ON THE ROSTER

Duke (7) – Chase Jeter (6-10, C, freshman); Luke Kennard (6-5, SG, freshman); Brandon Ingram (6-8, SF, freshman); Derryck Thornton (6-1, PG, freshman); Grayson Allen (6-4, SG, sophomore); Matt Jones (6-5, SG, junior); Amile Jefferson (6-9, PF, senior).

Kentucky (6) – Isaiah Briscoe (6-2, G, freshman); Jamal Murray (6-5, SG, freshman); Skal Labissiere (6-11, C, freshman); Tyler Ulis (5-9, PG, sophomore); Marcus Lee (6-9, PF, junior); Alex Poythress (6-8, PF, senior).

Kansas (5) – Carlton Bragg (6-9, PF, freshman); Cheick Diallo (6-9, PF, freshman); Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk (6-8, SF, sophomore); Wayne Selden (6-5, SG, junior); Perry Ellis (6-8, PF, senior).

Maryland (3) – Diamond Stone (6-10, C, freshman); Robert Carter (6-8, PF, junior); Rasheed Sulaimon (6-5, SG, senior).

North Carolina (3) – Theo Pinson (6-6, SF, sophomore); Justin Jackson (6-8, SF, sophomore); Isaiah Hicks (6-8, PF, junior).

NBA DRAFT PROSPECTS (DraftExpress.com 2016 mock)

Kentucky (5) – 1. Skal Labissiere, 16. Jamal Murray, 19. Isaiah Briscoe, 29. Marcus Lee, 57. Alex Poythress.

North Carolina (5) – 23. Justin Jackson, 25. Kennedy Meeks, 26. Theo Pinson, 28. Brice Johnson, 47. Marcus Paige.

Maryland (3) – 10. Diamond Stone, 24. Jake Layman, 35. Melo Trimble.

Kansas (2) – 14. Cheick Diallo, 17. Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk.

Duke (1) – 4. Brandon Ingram.