Breeders' Cup Spotlight: Juvenile Fillies

BREEDERS’ CUP SPOTLIGHT: JUVENILE FILLIES

Date: Saturday, Oct. 31 at Keeneland.

Purse: $2 million.

Division: 2-year-old fillies

Distance: 1 1/16 miles

TV: NBC Sports Network

Radio/livestreaming: Horse Racing Radio Network, including 93.9-FM in Louisville and horseracingradio.net.

The favorite: It likely will be the Jerry Hollendorfer-trained Songbird off her dominance in California, where she won her three starts by a combined 16 ¼ lengths, including the Grade I Del Mar Futurity and Santa Anita’s Grade I Chandelier. She is fast and she keeps going. The question is whether her form will translate to Keeneland. But there’s not a lot of other natural speed in the field, and she’s a huge threat to go wire to wire.

Sentimental favorite: Hands-down it’s the Todd Pletcher-trained Rachel’s Valentina, who in her second start won Saratoga’s Grade I Spinaway. The filly is the second (and to date, last) foal of the great filly Rachel Alexandra, who after taking the Kentucky Oaks by 20 lengths beat the boys in the Preakness, Haskell and Woodward to be voted 2009 Horse of the Year. Rachel Alexandra nearly died after foaling Rachel’s Valentina, and a huge following carries over to all her babies. But she’s also really good, with an ideal stalking style and racing extremely professionally. She will be stretching out, however.

Other contenders: Nickname is not as flashy, but she’s won her last two starts with ease, including Belmont’s Grade I Frizette, after losing her debut to Rachel’s Valentina. This race is a great regional showdown, with the late-running, distance-loving Dothraki Queen taking Churchill Downs’ Pocahontas and finishing a good second in Keeneland’s Alcibiades to the now-sidelined Gomo. The late-running Chandelier runner-up Land Over Sea and Spinaway runner-up Tap to It can factor into the exotics at a nice price.

Worth knowing: Crushing The Cup (proghandicap.com) points out that 25 of 31 Juvenile Fillies winners had won a prior stakes of some kind, although Beholder in 2012 and Take Charge Brandi in 2014 were exceptions, while having placed in a graded stakes. Ria Antonia, moved up to first in 2013 on a DQ, did not, but actual first-place finisher She’s a Tiger had. The average Juvenile Fillies win payoff is $19.

- Jennie Rees