The Resume: U of L's NCAA tournament profile
Welcome to The Resume, a new feature this season that we'll be doing every week as the NCAA tournament fast approaches. The goal here is to focus specifically on Louisville's tournament profile and assess where the Cardinals stand in terms of seeding in the tournament field.
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Last season, I spent a lot of time on seeding and trying to project where Louisville -- and the rest of the teams in college hoops -- would fit into the tournament field. But we never had one place where U of L fans (and other curious hoops fans) could go to look just at Louisville's profile and where the Cardinals stand in the grand scheme of things.
THE PRIMER
Here's the deal: The NCAA tournament selection committee has a group of specific metrics with which it evaluates teams. Let's break down specifically what the selection committee does have on its computer software during the process:
What the committee has on its selection process software: RPI, average opponent RPI, overall record, nonconference RPI, nonconference record, conference record, road/neutral record, strength of schedule, nonconference strength of schedule, opponents' strength of schedule, nonconference opponents' strength of schedule, record vs. RPI top 25, record vs. RPI top 50, record vs. RPI top 100, losses to RPI >150 teams, record vs. NCAA tournament teams, last 15 games.
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What committee members can use by choice to inform their thinking, but don't have on the NCAA software: Ken Pomeroy's efficiency ratings, Jeff Sagarin's ratings, AP/Coaches top 25 polls, ESPN's BPI, among other metrics.
This is why I constantly tell people that top 25 polls during the season simply don't matter. You can be No. 1 in the country in the AP and Coaches polls and get a 4 seed. That would be unlikely 99 times out of 100 -- or maybe 999 times out of 1,000 -- but it's possible.
WORKING LOUISVILLE'S RESUME
Last week, two days before the Virginia game, I asked Rick Pitino if he thought at all about the seeding significance of games like that. As I wrote last week, the game at Virginia was Louisville's last chance at a marquee road win.
Pitino said no, that all he cares about is if his team is playing good basketball as the tournament approaches. If Louisville lands a 4 seed, so be it, he said. Or a 1 seed, for that matter.
"I don't care about that," he said. "I don't really care if we're a 1 seed or a 4 seed. As long as you're playing good basketball, and we're playing good basketball, hoping to continue. I like our chemistry, I like our backcourt, I like the way Montrezl has had a rebirth in terms of the way he should be playing. I like the way Wayne is playing. We've got to get Chinanu and Mangok (better)."
What we've learned in recent years is that it's not so much seeding that matters as much as matchups. The most recent bracket projection by ESPN's Joe Lunardi has Louisville as a 3 seed in a region with Gonzaga, Arizona and Oklahoma as the 1, 2 and 4 seeds, respectively. That would be a decent draw for U of L.
THE NUMBERS
Overall record: 19-4.
RPI: 12.
Strength of schedule: 31.
Conference record: 7-3.
Road/neutral record: 7-2.
Nonconference strength of schedule: 112.
Nonconference RPI: 8.
Nonconference record: 12-1.
Opponents' strength of schedule: 19.
Record vs. RPI top 25: 1-4.
Record vs. RPI top 50: 3-4.
Record vs. RPI top 100: 9-4.
Losses to RPI >150 teams: 0.
Record vs. NCAA tournament teams (using ESPN's Bracketology: 4-4.
Last 15 games: 11-4.