ELECTION KY

Conway maintains lead over Bevin, poll shows

Joseph Gerth
Opinion Columnist | Louisville Courier Journal

Democrat Jack Conway is clinging to a 5 percentage point lead over Republican Matt Bevin as the Kentucky gubernatorial race steams to a close on Tuesday, according to the most recent Bluegrass Poll.

The survey of 798 likely voters found that Conway gets 45 percent of voters, while Bevin trails with 40 percent. Independent Drew Curtis gets 6 percent, and 10 percent are undecided.

For Bevin and Conway, it must feel like what the late Yogi Berra said was “déjà vu all over again,” as all three times the Bluegrass Poll has been in the field this election, it has come back with Conway up by 5 points.

The poll was conducted by SurveyUSA for The Courier-Journal, WHAS-TV, the Lexington Herald-Leader and WKYT-TV. It was conducted by calling people on landlines and sending questionnaires to their mobile devices Oct. 23-26.

The governor’s race question has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, meaning that statistically speaking, it should be accurate within that margin 95 percent of the time. With that margin, it’s conceivable that Bevin could hold a slight lead.

The Conway camp said it would redouble efforts down the stretch but that Conway’s message about jobs, early childhood education and health care are gaining traction.

“We are entering the final days of the campaign with momentum on our side. And as this campaign has progressed, Kentuckians have learned why Republicans labeled Matt Bevin an ‘East Coast Con Man,’ … and he continues to prove that he doesn't have the temperament to lead as our next governor," Conway spokesman Daniel Kemp said.

Bevin's campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Poll: Dems lead in 3 of 5 downticket races

Steve Voss, a political science professor at the University of Kentucky, said other polls completed recently have similar findings, which makes him believe the Bluegrass Poll is accurate.

“It echoes poll results emerging from other places as well, using different methodologies,” he said. “The likelihood that this is a fluke is pretty small.”

Democratic strategist Danny Briscoe said chances of a Bevin win are small, short some sort of revelation about Conway that makes him unelectable.

“It tells us that Conway is going to win the election and should spend the next five days going throughout the state telling unions, teachers, people who are in favor of health care, people who want more early childhood education, people who want more for Kentucky to go out and vote,” he said. “He needs to stress that this a really important election, because it is.”

Republican strategist Les Fugate agreed that it will be difficult to change the course of the election with a message at this point and Bevin now must focus on making sure voters get to the polls on Election Day.

"The two main things left are enthusiasm and turnout and one begets another," Fugate said. "This is an extraordinary Republican environment, and all things being equal, the Republicans would probably win all of these races by a decent margin, but we're seeing (Democrats') cash advantages play out."

While the poll shows the two camps stuck with a five percentage point differential, it shows that Democrats are picking up steam in the races for attorney general, auditor and secretary of state, while the Republican in the agriculture commissioners’ race has grabbed a substantial advantage.

In all cases, the candidate who has raised and spent the most money is leading.

The most disheartening result for the Bevin team may not be the head-to-head matchup with Conway, which keeps him in striking distance, but other questions in the poll that seem to indicate that Conway’s media campaign has successfully defined Bevin as untrustworthy.

Conway's ads have claimed that Bevin didn’t pay property and business taxes on time and has taken positions on issues and then only days or weeks later, claimed that he never took those policy positions.

When 1,016 registered voters were asked who is most honest, 37 percent selected Conway and 26 percent selected Bevin. Curtis trailed at just 10 percent, largely because he has not run any television advertising and is largely unknown to most voters.

When registered voters were asked their opinion of Bevin, 32 percent said it was favorable while 38 percent said it was unfavorable. Conway, on the other hand, is viewed favorably by 36 percent of voters and unfavorably by 32 percent. Those questions had margins of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Voss said what is troubling for Bevin is that some of his weakness comes among strong Republicans, a group that has traditionally shown few cracks in their support of Republican candidates.

The majority of voters believe teachers should not be allowed to carry guns at school.

“Bevin has slipped, and if you look at where he slipped, it’s among certain Republicans and conservative-leaning independents,” he said. The poll results tell “a negative story (for Republicans) and not just Bevin. If these GOP voters are not motivated to show up, the repercussion could spread wider than just this one race.”

The poll comes on the same day that the Republican Governors Association announced it was buying an additional $900,000 worth of television ads in the final week of the campaign that will try to tie Conway with President Barack Obama.

In September, the Bluegrass Poll found that Obama remains terribly unpopular in the state, with 31 percent saying they approve of the job he’s doing while 61 percent said they don’t approve.

Both candidates have been criticized by members of their own party - Conway for his campaign style and Bevin for his outsider status and his failure to be a team player. That shows up in the poll when respondents were asked if they are satisfied with their candidates.

While 44 percent said they are satisfied with their choices, 38 percent said they weren’t. Republicans were least enthused, with 45 percent saying they were satisfied and 43 percent saying they were not.

On the other hand, half of all Democrats said they like their choices while 31 percent said they wish someone else was running.

If people voted on issues alone, based on the two policy positions the poll tested, Conway would win in a landslide.

When asked if Kentucky should continue the expansion of the state Medicaid programs, 54 percent said they believe it should continue, the same position that Conway has taken.

Just 24 percent said the state should reverse the expansion of Medicaid, the health insurance program for people at or near the poverty level. Bevin has said that he would reverse the expansion "immediately.”

On whether or not, in the wake of school shootings across the country, teachers should be armed in classrooms, a majority of Kentuckians – 52 percent – agree with Conway’s position that they should not and that guns should be left in the hands of trained law enforcement officers.

Only 37 percent said they agree with Bevin’s stance – that teachers should be allowed to carry weapons in the classroom if they want.

The majority of voters believe teachers should not be allowed to carry guns at school.

Conway leads among both men and women, but his lead is greater with females. He leads among voters under age 34 and over age 50, with Bevin leading among those in between.

The two are essentially tied among white voters, while Conway has a substantial lead among African Americans. Some 8 percent of likely voters who say they are “strong Republicans” say they’ll vote for Conway, while only 3 percent of “strong Democrats” say they’ll back Bevin.

And, possibly still showing anger at Bevin’s challenge to Mitch McConnell in last year’s U.S. Senate race, 15 percent who say they are “very conservative” and 21 percent of those who say they are “conservative” say they’ll vote for Conway.

Just 3 percent of those who are “liberal” and “very liberal” say they’ll cross over and back Bevin.

Conway leads among all education levels and among those who earn less than $80,000 a year. Bevin leads among those who earn more.

Regionally, Conway runs strongest in Jefferson County while Bevin does best in an area of Western Kentucky that approximates the state’s 2nd Congressional District.

David Brashear, 56, of Henderson County, said he will vote for Bevin because of his position on gun rights, saying that he believes teachers should be armed.

“We trust them with our kids, I don’t see any problem with them being able to have weapons in schools,” said Brashear, a retired tool and die maker who said he believes the country is going in the wrong direction and “the Democrats have helped that along.”

John Young, a lawyer with the Legal Aid Society, in Louisville, however, said he is voting for Conway because he thinks he has done a good job as attorney general, especially when he joined a lawsuit against banks that were foreclosing on people's homes. The banks ultimately settled with Conway and other attorneys general and stopped some of the foreclosure practices.

"He was trying to hold the banks accountable for what they did ... and I'm really glad that he could see to do that," Young said.

Reporter Joseph Gerth can be reached at (502) 582-4702 or jgerth@courier-journal.com.