Breeders' Cup | Expert Keeneland Friday picks
Friday at Keeneland brings with it the Lexington, Ky., track's first four Breeders' Cup races ever: the Juvenile Turf (3:30 p.m.), Dirt Mile (4:10 p.m.), Juvenile Fillies Turf (4:50 p.m.) and Distaff (5:35 p.m.).
The Courier-Journal asked experts from Churchill Downs and NBC and other media outlets their thoughts on the races. Below are selections on each race, with recommended bets to boot.
Picks come from Churchill Downs handicappers Joe Kristufek (@JoeyDaKRacing) and Kevin Kerstein (@HorseRacingKK) as well as TwinSpires.com's Ed DeRosa (@EJXD2), ladyandthetrack.com's Trixie Hammer (@LadyAndTheTrack) and NBC's Laffit Pincay (@LaffitPincayTV).
More expert picks may be added Friday afternoon. Refresh for updates.
Entries, odds | Complete Breeders' Cup draw
$1 MILLION JUVENILE TURF
Kristufek
Winner: #7 Ray's the Bar
My bet: Win, 2x Place, 4x Show
Why: A debut winner against 12 rivals at 20-1 at Ascot in his career debut, this Euro import was bet down to 3-1 in his first U. S. try ten weeks later. He ran huge in what may turn out to be a very good edition of the G3 Pilgrim at Belmont. He's a handy horse who should enjoy the Keeneland turf course, improvement is likely and he's 20-1 in the ML with Castellano and Brown.
Kerstein
Winner:#8 Airoforce
Bet: $.50 Pick 4 (Races 6-9): 8-13-14/3-8/3-8-9-10/2-7-14 = $36
Why: experienced over the track. Training great at Churchill Downs.
DeRosa
Pick to win: #4 Shogun
My bet: Across the board
Why: Shogun was only beaten 1 3/4 lengths last out, but bettors are likely to gravitate toward that sixth-place finish rather than note he was only about 1 1/2 lengths behind Cymric, who will take a lot more money in this spot.
Hammer
Winner: #2 Azar
My bet: Azar to win
Why: Azar may not be the best of the bunch just yet but I'll take my chance on the Pletcher trainee in this race to get my blood pumping.
Pincay
Winner: #4 Shogun
$1 MILLION DIRT MILE
Kerstein
Winner: #3 Liam's Map
My bet: Pick 4 continues
Why: Liam's Map could be the most talented horse in the country.
DeRosa
Pick to win: #3 Liam's Map
My bet: Single Liam's Map in multi-race wagers
Why: Liam's Map is a horse handicappers I respect are licking their chops to play against. He's not the 100% lock of the century, but my problem with trying to beat him is I'd have to use half the field against him. The aforementioned Shogun is 12-to-1 and my pick in the Distaff is 30-to-1. If I'm right about either, then I can afford to eat a little chalk here.
Hammer
Winner: #1 Red Vine
My bet: Trifecta Box: 1,3,5
Why: Liam's Map is impressive but Red Vine will finish in the money too.
$1 MILLION JUVENILE FILLIES TURF
Kristufek
Winner: #9 Nemoralia
My bet: Win, 2x Place, 4x Show
Why: This Euro import ran a representative race in the G1 Frizette, finishing second in the slop. She returns to grass for this one, and her performances over that surface overseas were visually impressive. Her pedigree screams of early development with turf on top and route on the bottom and most importantly, the price should be right!
Kerstein
Winner: #9 Nemoralia
My bet: Pick 4 continues
Why: First try in United States was taken off the turf. Draw a line through that start and fits very well getting back on the turf.
DeRosa
Pick to win: #8 Harmonize
My bet: Exacta box with Alice Springs
Why: Harmonize raced on the front end in her first two starts then closed from more than 10 lengths out of it in her last start. I like when a two-year-old shows that kind of versatility. Alice Springs figures to be among the favorites as well, but with a full field I anticipate some value on an exacta if you're willing to take a stand.
Hammer
Winner: #4 Catch a Glimpse
My Bet: Catch a Glimpse to win.
Why: I simply want to see the Casse team bring this one home.
Pincay
Winner: #3 Alice Springs
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$2 MILLION DISTAFF
Kristufek
Winner: #1 I'm a Chatterbox
My bet: Win, 2x Place, 4x Show
Why: In what appears to be one of the most contentious races run Breeders' Cup weekend, I'll take a horse with versatility and upside. This sophomore daughter of Munnings has performed well all season and she is tactical enough to sit close if the pace is tepid or rally from the back if the fractions are hot.
Kerstein
Winner: #2 Frivolous
My bet: Pick 4 continues
Why: Ran a monster race in the Locus Grove at Churchill Downs two starts back. Bounced slightly off of that effort in the Spinster but that race sets her up perfectly for a better effort. In a wide-open race like this, I'm searching for a price to upset the field.
DeRosa
Pick to win: #8 Frivolous
My bet: Across the board
Why: This is an evenly matched group so why not go for a price? Frivolous was marooned in the Spinster and still ran on at the end despite the wide trip. She's drawn inside here and wins at both the course and distance (though not in the same race) inspire confidence at a big price. I'll fade the three-year-olds, who just don't look up to their elders' level, as only Stellar Wind has popped a triple digit Brisnet.com Speed Rating among the five sophomores.
Hammer
Winner: #9 Stellar Wind
My Bet: Stellar Wind to win.
Why: Stellar Wind may be outclassed but I'll give her one last shot to add a little value in my day.