CARDINALS

Bracket Picks: 9-step guide to Midwest Region

Jeff Greer
Louisville Courier Journal

The field for the 2016 NCAA Tournament is out, even if none of us ever thought we'd see the bracket during the two-hour megabonanza thing CBS tried to pull off Sunday night.

(At least teach Charles Barkley how to use the picks board before he goes on the air. Please?)

In an effort to help you pick your bracket, these nine-step guides for each region in the tournament are designed to give you some information that'll hopefully serve as some background for your predictions.

Other regional guides: East | South | West 

As the headline says, this guide is for the Midwest Region, so let's break it down. The four regional semifinalists will play in the Sweet 16 in Chicago.

1. Team to beat: Michigan State. My preseason pick to win the national title (I know, super risky) has clicked late this season. The Spartans got Denzel Valentine back in the mix after a December knee injury, and he returned to his player of the year form. I saw him play in person in December. He is an absolute game-changing talent in the sense that he gets into cracks and crevices, creates for teammates and always seems to be in the right place. And Sparty has Tom Izzo, who is as good of a coach as anyone, especially in March.

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2. Contenders: Virginia, Utah, Iowa State, Purdue. If it was in any other region, Virginia would be a Final Four pick for me. I like Utah, Iowa State and Purdue, but I don't know if anyone of them can get in the way of Virginia-Michigan State in the Elite 8.

3. Dark horse: Dayton. It was a coin toss between the Flyers and Seton Hall, which is soaring after a Big East tournament title in New York City. But I really like Archie Miller's squad, which was 21-3 before hitting a 4-4 stretch before the tournament. The Flyers beat Iowa, Monmouth and Vanderbilt, all solid wins, and they are one of the best defensive and rebounding teams in the country. Opponents only get 23.6 percent of their missed shots against Dayton, a number that ranks fourth in the nation.

4. Cinderella: Arkansas-Little Rock.  The Trojans are 29-4 and beat Tulsa and San Diego State in their nonconference schedule. They are another tough-looking 12 seed, a team that could use its 3-point shooting to get past a really big, physical Purdue.

5. The upset to pick: Little Rock over Purdue. Don't get me wrong, I think the Boilermakers are really solid. I love their size and physicality, and if I am wrong here, I can easily see them making a run. Still, I like UALR a lot, too, and, for the reasons I put above, this is my 5-12 upset pick.

6. Best first-round matchup: Seton Hall vs. Gonzaga. It's weird that Seton Hall, not Gonzaga, is the hot team that has won eight of nine and 25 games entering the NCAA Tournament. Gonzaga's only good nonleague win was UConn, though the Bulldogs gave both Texas A&M and Arizona fits. Typically Gonzaga is one of the top teams in the country, but they slipped out of the national picture this season. This one has the makings of a fun matchup, with Gonzaga's efficient offense and Seton Hall's efficient defense.

7. Best potential matchup: Virginia vs. Michigan State. I told anyone who would listen that this was my national-title-game pick, and here we are having to settle for an Elite 8. Think about it: Bennett vs. Izzo, Brogdon vs. Valentine, etc. Yes, please.

8. Best player: Denzel Valentine, Michigan State. I already sang Valentine's praises above, so here's some love for Malcolm Brogdon of Virginia, Jakob Poeltl of Utah and Isaiah Whitehead of Seton Hall. Lots of talent in this region.

9. Best coach: Tom Izzo, Michigan State. Bennett is obviously close, as are Jim Boeheim at Syracuse and Gonzaga's Mark Few. But Izzo always finds a way to get it done in March, and I think this team is going to win him his second national title.

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Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo at the Nike Elite Youth Basketball League at Kentucky Basketball Academy in Lexington,Ky., on Saturday April 25, 2015.