Bilas says Kentucky, Louisville seeded wrong

Kentucky and Louisville fans both feel their team got a raw deal on NCAA Tournament seeding – the Cats an eight, the Cards a four – and neither is thrilled to have been thrown into the Midwest Region of Doom with Wichita State, Michigan and Duke. If it makes you feel any better, ESPN college basketball analyst Jay Bilas shares your disapproval. I caught up with him today and Bilas called UK "far better than an eight seed."

"There were some really bad seedings. I would lead the way with Louisville as the worst treatment," he said. "If you look at every metric, Louisville is a top-five team. And they're not only playing like it, they've proven it. And if you want to just go through a counting exercise of, 'How many top-50 games did you win?' well the top-50 game thing relies on a flawed metric anyone. It's the RPI top 50, which is flawed out of the gate."

Bilas correctly notes that once the tournament starts, it's awesome no matter what so the selection committee will "get a free pass" on improper seeding "and they shouldn't. They're spending all this time – and frankly all this money – then get it right. It's not that hard. Just not that hard. Every year it's screwed up, and there's no reason for it."

His other point: Just because the games will be good and the drama thick regardless of the seeding mistakes doesn't mean they aren't mistakes . And it doesn't mean those mistakes don't alter the course of the tournament.

"It not only mistreats the mis-seeded team; it's the team they have to play against. So it has a ripple effect throughout the tournament," Bilas said. For instance, you think undefeated Wichita State feels rewarded for its historic season with a possible road to the Final Four that goes through Kentucky, Louisville and Duke or Michigan? "It cuts some teams a break. It makes it harder on others that have earned that break. And that's not right. We could do a far better job and they should."

Bilas said Kentucky's path as an eight seed is "extraordinarily difficult" and called the 8/9 game "the worst place to be" in the tournament field. "You would rather be an 11 seed or a 10." To a large extent, he's right. I crunched the numbers and history is not on the Wildcats' side in terms of making a deep run over the next three weeks.

Since the NCAA Tournament field expanded to 64 teams in 1985, only 10 of 116 eight seeds reached the Sweet 16, seven making the Elite Eight, four getting to the Final Four and just two played for the national title. Villanova in '85 is the only eight seed (and the lowest ever) to win a title. Butler in 2011 is the only eight seed in the last nine tournaments to get past the Round of 32. Kentucky has been an eight seed just three times – 1987, 2006 and 2007 – and posted a combined 2-3 record.

I have a bunch more coming from Bilas, including his take on that potential Cats-Shockers showdown Sunday. Stay tunde for that. Until then, here are a few lists to illustrate just how daunting the road ahead is for Kentucky:

Eight Seeds in Final Four Since Expansion to 64 teams in 1985

2011 – Butler (national runner-up)

2000 – North Carolina, Wisconsin

1985 – Villanova (national champion)

Nine Seeds and Lower in the Final Four since 1985

2013 – No. 9 Wichita State

2011 – No. 11 VCU

2006 – No. 11 George Mason

1986 – No. 11 LSU

Kentucky's History as an Eight Seed

1987 – Round of 64, lost to No. 9 Ohio State 91-77

2006 – Round of 32, lost to No. 1 Connecticut 87-83

2007 – Round of 32, lost to No. 1 Connecticut 88-76

Deepest eight-seed run since 1985

2013 – Round of 32 (two teams)

2012 – Round of 32 (three teams)

2011 – National runner-up (Butler)

2010 – Round of 32 (two teams)

2009 – Round of 32 (two teams)

2008 – Round of 32 (two teams)

2007 – Round of 32 (Kentucky)

2006 – Round of 32 (Kentucky and two others)

2005 – Round of 32

2004 – Elite Eight (Alabama)

2003 – Round of 32

2002 – Sweet 16 (UCLA)

2001 – Round of 64

2000 – Final Four (Wisconsin, North Carolina)

1999 – Round of 64

1998 – Elite Eight (Rhode Island)

1997 – Round of 32 (two teams)

1996 – Sweet 16 (Georgia)

1995 – Round of 32 (two teams)

1994 – Round of 64

1993 – Round of 32 (two teams)

1992 – Round of 32

1991 – Round of 32 (three teams)

1990 – Sweet 16 (North Carolina)

1989 – Round of 64

1988 – Round of 32 (three teams)

1987 – Round of 32

1986 – Elite Eight (Auburn)

1985 – NCAA Champion (Villanova)

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