Vegas likes Louisville as a solid betting favorite

To hear callers on sports-talk radio in Louisville Monday morning, you’d think that the Cardinals have to be an underdog when playing the University of Kentucky on Friday night in the NCAA basketball tournament’s Sweet Sixteen.

After all, the taller Wildcats won their December meeting 73-66. The Wildcats were most impressive in beating previously undefeated Wichita State on Sunday, while U of L did not look its best beating Saint Louis or Manhattan.

But Las Vegas has the University of Louisville a solid 4 1/2- to 5-point favorite in the Midwest Regional semifinals in Indianapolis. What are the oddsmakers seeing that many area fans don’t? We called Wynn Las Vegas’ John Avello to find out.

Avello had Louisville as the 4-1/2-point favorite Monday afternoon after opening at 5.

“The line is based on rating of both teams,” he said. “Kentucky played great Sunday. From what I’ve seen, it was one of their best-played games all year… So yes, the line probably came down a little bit from what I thought it would be originally. But you can’t make that big an adjustment to make Kentucky the favorite.

“You look at both teams through the year. I think Louisville has a better shooting percentage. Offensively, I think they’re ranked higher. Yes, they did play against each other, and Kentucky won. It was an awful game shooting-wise. They both were awful from the free-throw line. It was a long time ago. ... I can’t let one game affect my line too much.”

Avello said there is no way Kentucky will end up favored by tipoff.

“That’s not going to happen,” he said. “This game could possibly end up Louisville (by) 4. That would be about the most. ... When we get to this time of the year, these numbers are pretty tight. There is no money going to move these games more than half a point.”

Avello did say if he was a bookmaker around Lexington, “I’d probably make this game 2. Because I know I’m going to get all UK action. But when you’re in Vegas and you’re getting action all over the world, they’re not Kentucky fans. They’re not Louisville fans. They’re fans of their handicapping or what the number on the board might be.”

Among Wynn’s odds to win the national championship, Florida is the 5-2 favorite (after opening at 25-1), followed by Michigan State, 4-1; Louisville, 9-2, and Arizona 6-1. Kentucky is 15-1 (after opening up at 4-1).

Wynn’s odds to win the Midwest Regional: Louisville, 5-6; Michigan, 16-5; Kentucky, 4-1; Tennessee, 9-2.

— Jennie Rees