Sullivan | Best of Blue Grass rarely leads to roses

LEXINGTON, Ky. – The Blue Grass Stakes is a race out of step. Once the preferred path to the Kentucky Derby, Keeneland’s signature event has maintained its traditions, preserved its ambience, but receded in relevance.

It is no more a predictor of the Run for the Roses now than is Sylvester Stallone of boffo box office. Since 1996, the only Derby winner to compete in the Blue Grass was Street Sense, in 2007. The last horse to win both races was Strike The Gold, in 1991, before Miley Cyrus was even a twerk in her father’s eye.

And now this: Dance With Fate sped down the stretch from 11th place Saturday afternoon, winning the 90th Blue Grass Stakes by 1¾ lengths, only to have trainer Peter Eurton puncture the prevailing euphoria by declaring his 3-year-old colt doubtful for the Derby.

“I don’t like to run my horses back that quick, I really don’t ...” Eurton said, citing the three-week window between the Blue Grass and the Derby.

Later, on the Blue Grass’ place in the Derby preps’ pecking order, Eurton opined: “I think it was probably a last choice for most.”

Ouch.

Eurton acknowledged that the ultimate decision on Dance With Fate’s future belonged to its owners, and the lure of Derby fever and internal industry pressures might convince Joseph Ciaglia and his partners to take the chance. But should they decide to take a shot on the first Saturday in May, they would do so with reservations Keeneland should weigh going forward.

Some of the Blue Grass’ eroding stature is clearly a function of the calendar. Some of it is a product of Keeneland’s lame-duck Polytrack surface. But the net effect is that a race held at the home base of America’s thoroughbred industry, in close proximity to Churchill Downs, is progressively the road not taken.

Between Alysheba in 1987 and Thunder Gulch in 1995, five Derby winners and two runners-up used the Blue Grass as a tuneup for Derby Day. More recently, though, top contenders have gravitated to the earlier Florida Derby (run this year on March 29) or the Wood Memorial (April 5), and so much so that not a single horse in Saturday’s Blue Grass field was included among the top 10 Derby choices in odds posted by the Wynn Las Vegas Race and Sports Book.

“I’ve made the trip from here to the Derby twice, and both horses ran very well,” said trainer Dale Romans, whose Medal Count finished second to Dance With Fate on Saturday. “I don’t know why anyone would think that this is not a good race to prep for the Derby. In history, this race has done very well.”

“Not recent history,” he was told.

“You’re just talking about the winners,” Romans replied. “Horses that have run well (in the Derby), a lot of them have come out of this race.”

Still, Keeneland acknowledged an issue on April 2 in announcing the end of its Polytrack period. Next year’s Blue Grass Stakes will be conducted on dirt, eliminating one of the reasons some horsemen have cited for taking their trade elsewhere.

Though data suggests synthetic surfaces have been kinder to horses, less likely to produce catastrophic breakdowns, the impact on racing has been polarizing. Though some trainers and owners prefer artificial surfaces, others believe they lead to more random results, blurring the difference between an outstanding horse and a mediocre one.

Numerous tracks that were quick to embrace the new technology, and at considerable expense, have since reversed course. Seven years ago, Del Mar President Joe Harper said his track’s Polytrack surface cost $9 million, adding, “I would have spent $90 million to put this track in. I wasn’t going to sit around and look at the number of horses that had to be euthanized last year.”

Now, Harper’s “noble experiment” nears its end. Like Keeneland, Del Mar will revert to dirt in 2015, which will reduce the number of North American tracks using synthetic surfaces to five.

“I don’t like synthetic surfaces every day for a horse to run on,” Romans said. “But I do appreciate that Keeneland tried to step out of the box and do something positive, doing something that they thought was good for racing. I also appreciate that they figured out it didn’t work and let’s go back.”

Once they’ve returned the Blue Grass Stakes to dirt, Keeneland may want to consider changing the date.

Contact Tim Sullivan at tsullivan@courier-journal.com or (502) 582-4650. Follow @timsullivan714 on Twitter and keep up with discussions using #cjsullivan.