SPORTS

ESPN's Chad Ford sees 3 certain first round NBA picks from UK

Kyle Tucker
@KyleTucker_CJ
Kentucky's Julius Randle walks off the court as UConn celebrates after beating the Wildcats for the NCAA Championship Monday night at AT&T Stadium. April 7, 2014

Kentucky coach John Calipari has been bracing for it since last summer. He said then, after watching his team full of McDonald's All-Americans practice, that he drove home singing to himself, "ready to start talking crap again." Then a sobering thought popped into his head: "Oh, my gosh, these guys are all going to leave."

Now, after all that talent navigated a turbulent season and launched an unforgettable run to last Monday's NCAA championship game, Calipari's initial fear is a very real possibility. One question has weighed on Wildcats fans' minds for the last week: Who will stay and who will go?

In an interview with The Courier-Journal, Chad Ford, ESPN's NBA draft guru, broke down each of Kentucky's top eight players and their pro prospects. He explains why they might leave, a reason for each to stay and his prediction.

Ford rates Julius Randle, James Young and Willie Cauley-Stein as certain first-round picks and thinks Andrew and Aaron Harrison, Dakari Johnson and Alex Poythress are late-first or early second-round selections. While he believes some of them could – and that a few should – improve their stock by coming back to school for another year, Ford said none are at risk of not being picked.

"I even think Marcus Lee would be drafted," Ford said. "All eight players from Kentucky would be drafted. That's amazing, but it's true."

But as none have officially made announcements, the question remains: Who stays and who goes?

PF JULIUS RANDLE (6-9, 250, freshman)

Why he'd go: "He's NBA ready and he's going to be a top-seven pick in this draft. I think he'll go somewhere between three and seven. When you look at the motor that he has and the NBA body that he has and his ability to rebound, those are attributes that NBA GMs salivate over. Could he improve his game with another year at Kentucky? Sure. He could work on his jump shot and work on his defense and things like that, but I think he's one of the two or three most NBA-ready players in the draft."

Reason to stay: "He could continue to improve. He could improve his jump shot, his perimeter game, and I think he could improve defensively. At times I didn't think he was as aggressive defensively as he was offensively."

Prediction: "He's gonna go. He's gone."

PG ANDREW HARRISON (6-6, 215, freshman)

Why he'd go: "You could just put 'long pause – long, long pause from Chad Ford.' This is the feedback that I've gotten from agents that have interviewed him and their dad: They feel like they weren't showcased or presented as well as they could've been as players and are not sure that another year at Kentucky helps them. They think their game is more ready for the NBA and will show better at the NBA level. And with Andrew, he's got great size for his position and that's one thing that's intriguing about him. NBA teams do love big point guards."

Reason to stay: "Not ready, saw his draft stock fall from a top-10 pick into the second round. He played better toward the end of the season but not enough to really reclaim his draft stock anywhere close to where it was before. A great year at Kentucky next year could propel especially Andrew back into that territory. If he were to have a dominant sophomore year, he could be back in the lottery."

Prediction: "Gone. Both of those (Harrison) kids are gone."

SG AARON HARRISON (6-6, 218, freshman)

Why he'd go: "Even bigger pause, longer pause. He wants to be in the NBA. Aaron was never as highly rated by NBA guys as Andrew because I think he's seen as an average prospect as a two guard. Nothing about his game particularly stands out. He doesn't have elite size, elite athletic ability; he's not an elite shooter. He helped himself in the tournament because he hit some big shots. You can't deny that the young man had some ice running through his veins. But when you look at his metrics and overall game, he's a marginal NBA prospect."

Reason to stay: "Improve his jump shot. I think that's the one area that he might be able to sell an NBA team on, if he was a lights-out 3-point shooter and not what he was this year (pre-tournament). The tournament is not going to completely sell them that that's what he is, a 50-percent 3-point shooter. Go back and shoot 40 percent from three as a sophomore and sell teams on the fact that he's a clutch shooter. I don't think they're sold on that."

Prediction: "He's gone. And make sure you're putting that this is not what I think they should do but what I think they will do, because I don't think either of those kids should leave."

Aaron Harrison waves to the crowd after being introduced during a celebration of Kentucky's run in the 2014 NCAA Tournament at Rupp Arena in Lexington. April 8, 2014

SF JAMES YOUNG (6-6, 215, freshman)

Why he'd go: "He's a classic NBA wing. I think his ability to shoot the ball as well as get to the basket gives him a few looks as an offensive player. He has decent size for his position, a good athlete, smart player."

Reason to stay: "Could've been more consistent as a jump shooter. Everyone knows he has that skill, but you look at his percentages and it could get better. That's the one area that's hurt his stock just a bit. If he had shot 40 percent from three, James Young is a lock for the top 10."

Prediction: "He's gonna go."

C WILLIE CAULEY-STEIN (7-0, 244, sophomore)

Why he'd go: "Because if he stays another year at Kentucky and doesn't improve, his draft stock starts to slide. People give 7-footers with that athletic ability a lot of leeway, and especially because Cauley-Stein came to college so raw. Despite the fact that there's games where he's almost non-existent on offense, people still see upside there. I don't know that that survives another year at Kentucky unless he just blows up."

Reason to stay: "He's not ready. He's so far from being NBA ready right now. Teams love the fact that he's a great shot blocker and how well he moves, laterally and up and down the court, but he's going to struggle to see minutes in the NBA. He's a classic candidate to be heading directly to the D League. I think he'd get better coaching, probably, and more fundamentals in college."

Prediction: "I don't know. I thought he would go. Some of his comments I've read and talking to some of the agents who are interviewing these kids, sounds like he might be more on the fence than I thought. At the end of the day, I think he goes, but I think he's definitely more iffy than those first two."

C DAKARI JOHNSON (7-0, 265, freshman)

Why he'd go: "I'm struggling again. He played well in the tournament when he got minutes. There is a dearth of centers in this draft – in the league, but especially in this draft – where a team that's in desperate need of a rotation big could come in and grab him in the late first round, early second round, just based off a need at the position. And he does have the size and body to be a rotation big in the NBA some day."

Reason to stay: "He's not ready and he can continue to improve. Because of his size and strength, he's a person that could really move up the draft board next year with more experience and more playing time."

Prediction: "He's the one I know least about, as far as chatter from agents. I know he's looking into the process. Man, I don't know. I really don't know on him. It's a question mark."

SF ALEX POYTHRESS (6-8, 239, sophomore)

Why he'd go: "I think he reminded people in the tournament why we were so high on him as a freshman: his elite athletic ability, his ability to finish above the rim. And I thought he played in the tournament, definitely more so than as a freshman, with toughness and energy. When he plays that way, he looks like an NBA player."

Reason to stay: "He really needs to continue to polish his offensive game. Right now where teams can get excited about him is who he might be able to defend and making athletic plays, but you'd like to see him make some skill plays as well. I think people were generally disappointed that he didn't make a big leap in that area from his freshman year. A lot of people thought he could, and the fact that he didn't means his stock is probably in the second round right now even though there's talent there that suggests it could be higher. If he had a big year for Kentucky next year, he could really move up the charts because you just don't find that length and athleticism and body very often."

Prediction: "I think he stays."

Kentucky's Alex Poythress fouls UConn's Lasan Kromah late in the second half as the Huskies beat the Wildcats for the NCAA Championship Monday night at AT&T Stadium. April 7, 2014

PF MARCUS LEE (6-9, 215, freshman)

Why he'd go: "He had a breakout game – I mean, really, a game – in the tournament, and NBA teams love length and athleticism, and he has got a bunch of both. Someone will take him in the second round, maybe even late first, just as a, 'If he'd stayed another year in school, he would've been a lottery pick. We see that there's value here, so we'll send him to the D League for a year, get him on a strength and conditioning program and see what we have.' "

Reason to stay: "He's a really intriguing player and he has a lot of things that NBA teams like. If he goes back and gets stronger and improves and gets major minutes for Kentucky next year, especially given that I don't think this incoming freshman class is particularly strong, he could be a top-10 pick in the next draft."

Prediction: "I think he stays. He's got the best opportunity of anyone on that team to dramatically increase his draft stock by staying a year."

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