5 things to watch: Louisville-FSU
Louisville and FSU both had open weekends to get ready for their Thursday night tilt on national television. In other words, fans of both teams have had to wait through an extra few antagonizing days before their teams play again.
It's almost here. Almost.
The Cardinals (6-2) need to play their A-plus game to beat FSU, the 7-0 No. 2 team in the country. This is exactly the kind of game that Louisville wanted to play when it joined the ACC, and here it is.
Let's run through five things to watch on Thursday night:
1. What's Florida State's lineup look like? Does Karlos Williams play? FSU coach Jimbo Fisher said Tuesday that Williams will, in fact, dress and play vs. Louisville. How much does it matter? Well, with Mario Pender out, the other rushing duties would go to Dalvin Cook, who's had a nice start to his college career. There's other talent on the roster, but Williams has to be the main guy for the Seminoles.
2. What's Parker's impact? After missing the first seven games of the season after foot surgery, star Louisville receiver DeVante Parker returned against NC State and put up huge numbers (nine catches, 132 yards). And he wasn't 100 percent, at least according to his coaches and observers. Parker hasn't spoken with the media since his return, but he'd probably say the same thing. Since that game, though, Bobby Petrino says the 6-foot-3 receiver has looked closer to his true self. And when he's fully going, he opens up all kinds of options for Louisville's passing game.
3. Containing Jameis. Remember a few weeks ago when I said that Clemson's Deshaun Watson would be the best quarterback that Louisville faced this year? Well, now Jameis Winston is. The reigning Heisman Trophy winner is the third-most accurate passer in the country, completing 70.6 percent of his passes. He's 11th in the nation with an 8.9 yards per pass average. He's 12th in ESPN's QBR system, which is designed to produce more accurate QB ratings than ... QB ratings. He is, however, off-pace of last year's stellar season. He threw 10 interceptions in 14 games last year. He already has six in seven this year. But that isn't enough to change the challenge that Louisville faces. Do the Cards trust their secondary enough to stay aggressive with their pass rush? I think they do.
4. Gardner and the gang. The offensive line, according to Petrino, has improved in the past couple games. They did look better for parts of the Clemson loss and then for much of the NC State game. Adding Aaron Epps at right tackle was a smart move. But keeping FSU's pass rush at bay will be a big challenge on Thursday, but not the entire challenge. Will Gardner has to play his best game of the season to beat FSU. That means no missed open guys, no happy feet, no turnovers. FSU has been average in turnover creation and sacking the quarterback, and they rank 98th in the country in opponent third-down conversions, which is not good. But none of that matters if Gardner isn't sharp, making throws and doing what Petrino expected when he named the Georgian his starter before the season.
5. Situational success.
Here's the deal: Football is a long game, with tons of ebbs and flows over the course of three-plus hours. Because of that, situational stats give us a clearer view of what's happening, and they'll likely decide Thursday's game. On offense, FSU is a top-40 third-down conversion unit and the No. 2 team in the country in red-zone conversions. Louisville's defense is sixth in the nation in defending red-zone situations and second in defending third downs. Meanwhile Louisville's offense is top 40 in red-zone efficiency but 71st on third downs. Florida State's defense is one of the best in the country defending the red zone and very average on third downs. Something will give on Thursday. Whatever it is will lead to someone winning.