Cats, Cards take different approach to saving aces

Bound by the laws of physics, by the rules of the game and by the fear of student-athletes starting labor unions, the NCAA baseball tournament continues to be played one game at a time.

Coaches, however, are compelled to play multilevel chess games with several opponents, to balance the Here And Now against the If And When. Double-elimination tournaments dictate that rosters be managed differently than during the regular season and they accentuate the need to ration resources so that the needs of today's game do not compromise tomorrow's.

Postseason pitching rotations are determined not only by ability but durability; by a starter's ability to bounce back on short rest and by the depth and resilience of a team's relief pitchers. Decisions are influenced by certain matchups that are set and by speculative matchups that may never materialize. Herein lies an excellent opportunity for a coach to outsmart himself.

In saving ace A.J. Reed for Kentucky's second game of the Louisville regional, Wildcats' coach Gary Henderson is playing one percentage and defying another. He is gambling that sophomore right-hander Kyle Cody can handle Friday's 2 p.m. start against the righty-dominated and unranked Kansas Jayhawks, leaving his left-handed stopper for Saturday, most likely against the better-balanced and ninth-ranked (USA Today) Louisville Cardinals.

Though Henderson called his decision a "no-brainer" Thursday, his correct path is not altogether plain. Reed is 11-2 when he's not hitting home runs, with an earned-run average of 2.10, and his shortest stint lasted two pitches fewer than Cody's longest. Cody (4-0, 2.65 ERA) has worked primarily out of the bullpen this season, has exceeded 62 pitches only in his most recent outing and, unlike Reed, is not the national College Player of the Year.

Moreover, as Leo Durocher so succinctly said: "You don't save a pitcher for tomorrow. Tomorrow, it may rain."

Yet Henderson's deliberations are more nuanced and arguably more brain-intensive than those of his major-league counterparts. He has to gauge his team's chances against different opponents on successive days, and also the danger of getting too cute by depending on a statistically lesser arm against a presumably lesser foe.

A big-league manager plotting a postseason rotation does so knowing he will be facing the same opponent over multiple days. He might prefer to use a particular pitcher at home or on the road because of ballpark bias, but he's generally going to go with his best guy at the earliest opportunity.

(The most notable exception took place in 1929, when Philadelphia A's manager Connie Mack surprised the Chicago Cubs by starting the unlikely Howard Ehmke in the first game of the World Series and consigning Hall of Famer Lefty Grove to bullpen duties. Ehmke won.)

Louisville coach Dan McDonnell tends to stick with his established rotation and did so last season even as No. 2 starter Jeff Thompson showed more dominant stuff than did titular ace Chad Green. McDonnell will start Kyle Funkhouser (12-2) in the Cardinals' tournament opener against Kent State, and he said Thursday he may not select his Saturday starter until he is sure of the identity of his opponent.

"You've got to do whatever you've got to do to win that first game," McDonnell said. " ... It's the most important game. It's the game of the moment. There is no other game. We've got people asking questions about possible matchups (but) there's no guarantee we're playing the other two teams on the other side and there's a good chance we won't. Just about every regional, there's one team we don't play."

Though the odds of Louisville missing Kentucky this weekend would seem remote, there's at least a chance Reed could be pitching Saturday to spare the Wildcats from being eliminated by Kent State. His coach is betting on Cody, however, to put his team in a more enviable position.

"When you just look at left on right, it was a no-brainer," Henderson said. "And it really wasn't any more complicated than that. It's not meant over too much respect for somebody and disrespect for somebody else. It was that (Kansas) had one left-handed guy at the top and they've got a pretty good chance that the next eight will be right."

"... The only (other) thing I thought about, and this is as honest as I can be, is that our best chance to chew up nine innings with one start is A.J. If you can do that, regardless of who you're playing, you've got a chance to rest your pen."

Either way, there are risks. Neither way guarantees results.

Contact Tim Sullivan at tsullivan@courier-journal.com or (502) 582-4650. Follow @timsullivan714 on Twitter and keep up with discussions using #cjsullivan.

Louisville Regional

Today at Jim Patterson Stadium

(2) UK vs. (3) Kansas

2 p.m., ESPN3

(1) U of L vs. (4) Kent State

6 p.m., ESPN3