Louisville: High expectations in early 2014-15 rankings
ARLINGTON, Texas -- Hard to believe the 2013-14 college basketball season ended the way it did, with Connecticut winning a national title over Kentucky.
When the NCAA tournament began, it was difficult to imagine either team would get that far, let alone win the whole thing.
But that's done, and today is the first day of the 2014-15 season. For Louisville, it's a season of great change or, as coach Rick Pitino put it two Fridays ago, it's the end of an era and start of a new one.
Read: What's next for Louisville basketball?
Of course, it won't truly feel like the start of the new season until we know star forward Montrezl Harrell's NBA Draft decision. The sophomore has another week to inform Louisville if he plans to enter the NBA Draft early or return to school for his junior year.
All indications to The Courier-Journal are that Harrell will leave, though the door isn't shut on a return, either.
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Most of the "Way Too Early" Top 25 rankings from our friends in the national media include Louisville. And they all rank Louisville as if Harrell won't return.
You might be surprised at how high some slot the Cardinals. I, for one, am not surprised to see them placed in the Top 25, but I admit a few of the Top-15 projections surprise me a little bit. I'll get to that in a little bit.
Read: The Wayne Blackshear Restoration Project is underway
A quick synopsis of Louisville's rankings by outlet:
CBS : 21
ESPN: 12
USA Today: 10
Yahoo : 16-30
Bleacher Report: 21
RealGM: 14
Surely more will pop up in the coming days. Sports Illustrated will be one I'd like to see.
Now, why am I surprised by the top-15 rankings?
Here's the deal: Louisville will be very good in the backcourt. Chris Jones, after an up-and-down start to the season, proved that he can be an efficient and reliable point guard in Pitino's system. Terry Rozier looks like a young player ready to break out as a sophomore. And Pitino is high on sophomore-to-be Anton Gill, who is a sharpshooter with some defensive and physical weaknesses that another offseason can fix.
When you throw in local product Quentin Snider, an incoming freshman considered one of the top point guards in the 2014 class, Louisville has four solid options in the backcourt.
In the swingman spot, Louisville is staring down a good battle to have: returning senior Wayne Blackshear vs. incoming freshman Shaqquan Aaron. Blackshear, as I referenced above in my link to the Restoration Project, is one of two major question marks for Louisville. (The other is Mangok Mathiang.) If Blackshear becomes the box-score-filling player Louisville thought he'd be when he signed as a McDonald's All-American out of high school, the Cards will have a guy who can shoot and attack and is a good defender who understands Pitino's system. But if Blackshear's inconsistency continues, the 6-foot-7 Aaron arrives loaded with potential and the talent to play meaningful minutes right away.
Up front, Louisville has a ton of potential, but nothing solid. And that's why I don't think the top-15 stuff is warranted just yet. It's safe to project a big step forward for Mathiang, but will it be enough to carry a frontcourt that's otherwise full of young, inexperienced players? Chinanu Onuaku and Jaylen Johnson arrive as freshmen who could win early playing time. They might even start. And sophomore-to-be Akoy Agau just needed to get away from playing against Harrell every day, Pitino said. So there's major room for growth, but it's hard to project that now.
And that's why a top-15 thought is a bit much now, but it's obviously very possible if the backcourt does what it's expected to and Mathiang and friends grow with the times. We saw it with Kentucky's freshmen, and with Connecticut's Amida Brimah. Mathiang got better as the season progressed, and his confidence soared in the postseason. A consistently confident and aggressive Mathiang makes Louisville a very strong candidate for at least a second-weekend trip in the NCAA tournament.
If Harrell comes back, Louisville's yet again a Final Four threat.