U of L-UVA: 5 things to watch
We're less than 48 hours from quite a few Louisville firsts:
* Louisville's first ACC road game
* Louisville's first road game in 2014
* Louisville's first road game under Bobby Petrino (this time)
Perhaps bigger than any of those: It's the first road start of Will Gardner's college career. I'd give him a B for his start against Miami. I'd give him a B+ against Murray State. An A performance at Virginia could go a long way for him.
Now, the line's moved from Louisville by 10 points down to Louisville by 6.5 points this week. A lot of people seem to like Virginia's defense, including an ESPN blogger who even picked the Hoos to win this weekend. I'm not sure I'd go that far, but the line shrinking illustrates what I wrote earlier this week: This game's more intriguing than we thought it'd be.
Here are five things to watch in Saturday's matchup:
1. Virginia's two quarterbacks. I just finished a story about this: UVA isn't exactly enduring a quarterback controversy. In fact, the Cavaliers have embraced it. They'll play both Matt Johns and Greyson Lambert on Saturday. If your only sampling of Virginia is its UCLA loss, like me, then you're probably wondering how Johns isn't the every-series QB. Lambert is the pocket guy. His completion percentage (76.3) ranks third in the nation. But Johns is the "he just makes plays" guy. It'll be interesting to see what changes each time they swap QBs.
2. Dyer's impact? Michael Dyer told Bobby Petrino he'd be ready to go this weekend. We'll get the definitive word on his status on Thursday evening, and my guess is that it will be a big-time hedge that doesn't clear much up. If he does play, he gives Louisville its fast, elusive primary tailback. If he doesn't, you can expect to see lots of Dominique Brown. My hunch is they'll ease him in.
3. Gardner's progress. Like I said above, Gardner's had a couple of good-not-great performances so far. He hasn't thrown a pick, but he has missed a few throws. His inside-his-own-10 fumbles were cause for concern against Miami, and I'm not ready to declare Murray State anything other than a glorified practice, so his progress will be evident on Saturday.
4. Slowing Parks. Wrote about this last night, too: UVA's running back was second in the league in rushing last year. This season, he's off to a sluggish start, getting 3.5 yards a carry. Louisville's rushing defense ranks sixth in the country through two games. The Cards are giving up 2.4 yards a run. Those numbers reconnect us back to No. 1 -- the quarterbacks have to be effective.
5. UVA pass rush vs. Louisville's O-line. I can go either way on this one. Virginia is seventh in the nation in sacks, second in tackles for loss and tied for Louisville at 15th in team interceptions. All three of those things are tied together, and Virginia's got a ton of talent on its defensive line.
That said, UVA is 100th in the country in stopping third-down conversions. UCLA and Richmond have combined to convert 15 of 34 third downs against Virginia's defense. Meanwhile Louisville ranks 21st nationally in third-down conversions, with 18 of 34 third downs resulting in first down.
My pick: I still like Louisville, despite the impressive start by Virginia's defense and the shrinking Vegas line. I've seen a few predictions that have this game in the teens. No way is it going to be that low scoring. I'll take Louisville 31-21.