CARDINALS

Week 14 Look Ahead: U of L's Orange Bowl path

Jeff Greer
Louisville Courier Journal
Louisville head coach Bobby Petrino watches his team during last Saturday’s game at Boston College.

The rumbling started last week after Duke's loss to UNC, and it only grew louder when Louisville held off Notre Dame in a thrilling Saturday night game in South Bend. So here we are, starting the final week of the regular season, staring down a question that seemed unlikely a few weeks ago:

Does Louisville have a path to the Orange Bowl? In short, yes, but the longer answer reveals that it's a little complicated. For some great insight into how the Orange Bowl will get its teams -- and a great view into the ACC bowl selection process -- read this explainer from the Raleigh News & Observer's Joe Giglio.

To sum, the Cardinals need some help with quite a few moving pieces. They have a fighting chance at grabbing the ACC's highest bowl bid after the road win at Notre Dame, assuming FSU makes the College Football Playoff. No, the Irish haven't exactly wowed anyone of late, losing three in a row, but a road win against a former College Football Playoff contender -- in that environment -- will impress the committee in the rankings process. It is (and will be) Louisville's best win of the season, especially if Notre Dame bounces back with a win over USC.

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The Cards (8-3) have wins over four bowl-eligible teams: Notre Dame, Miami, Boston College and NC State, and it's fair to note that they dominated Miami, BC and NC State, which can definitely help a team's cause in comprehensive rankings like the CFB Playoff committee's. They have two losses against CFB Playoff-ranked opponents. But here's where another factor comes in: That third loss, to 5-6 Virginia, would look a lot better if the Cavaliers beat Virginia Tech on Friday and became bowl eligible.

What's so important about that? Well, if Georgia Tech loses out, which is a huge part of the scenario in which Louisville makes the Orange Bowl, the Yellow Jackets would have four losses, including two to top-10 CFB Playoff teams and two others to bowl-eligible teams. They'd be 9-4, with one really good win -- 28-6 over Clemson -- and two other wins against bowl-eligible teams. Tech, like Louisville, is waiting on a few other opponents to become bowl eligible, which, again, adds to the strength of schedule. In college football, 6-6 is a lot different than 5-7. Like, canyon between 'em.

The winner of the Virginia-Virginia Tech game will give Georgia Tech four wins over bowl-eligible teams. If Pitt beats Miami, that'll be five Tech wins vs. bowl-eligible opponents.

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We haven't gotten to Clemson yet. The Tigers are also 8-3, but they have a bit of a trump card. They beat Louisville. They also don't have a loss to an unranked team. They have four wins against bowl-eligible teams, and would have a fifth if they beat South Carolina on Saturday.

OK, OK, you are reading this and just want it straight, so here is the easiest scenario in which Louisville can make the Orange Bowl:

* FSU wins out and makes the CFB Playoff. Without this one, there is no Orange Bowl for the Cards.

* Georgia Tech loses out and finishes 9-4, plus Pitt loses to Miami.

* Clemson loses to South Carolina.

* Louisville thumps Kentucky.

* Notre Dame beats USC.

In this scenario, Louisville's asking the CFB Playoff committee to rank them ahead of Clemson and Georgia Tech. In this scenario, Louisville is 9-3, Georgia Tech's 9-4 and Clemson's 8-4, and you're asking the committee to view Louisville's Notre Dame win as superior to Tech's Clemson win and Clemson's Louisville win. A lot would be left up to that committee room debate.

Here are two other things to follow this week as Louisville preps for its rivalry game vs. Kentucky:

Recovery time. It was an emotional, intense win for the Cards on Saturday night, and Reggie Bonnafon explained afterward that he'd need some time to sit in his dorm room and think about what transpired in South Bend. But both he and the teammates of his that we spoke to after the game said the same thing: It's UK. There's no other motivation needed. And if the players don't get up about it, the coaches will. As Lorenzo Mauldin put it, "I think we all know Coach Petrino doesn't like Kentucky."

Bonnafon's moment. He wasn't the second coming of Johnny Unitas, but the freshman quarterback showed poise and confidence against Notre Dame. He made great decisions on several read options, and a few of his play checks worked really well. See Michael Dyer's third-and-14 run for a first down for more on that. Bonnafon's looked so much more assertive and crisp since coming in for Will Gardner in the BC game. With so much on the line on Saturday -- believe me, that Orange Bowl possibility is known at U of L -- Bonnafon knows he has to maintain it.