After UVA, U of L enters key stretch

CHARLOTTESVILLE, Va. – – As is the case in a 31-game regular season over four months, there isn't much time to dwell on missed opportunities, and the University of Louisville basketball team was well aware of that on Saturday evening.

Moments after dropping a 52-47 decision to Virginia, All-American forward Montrezl Harrell and senior guard Chris Jones were already talking about what's next and how to avoid making the same mistakes they made Saturday when they take the court next.

"We have two big games coming up," Harrell said, referring to Wednesday's home game vs. Pitt and Saturday's follow-up home matchup with NC State.

"We can't afford to drop those two games. We've got to learn from this mistake and move on to the next one."

Related:Louisville "fed the monster" at Virginia

Harrell's right in one particular regard: If Louisville (19-4, 7-3 in the ACC) wants to maintain its trajectory toward a high seed in the NCAA tournament, it cannot afford to lose any of its next six games. Same theory applies to Louisville's hunt for an ACC regular-season title, which took a serious blow with the loss at Virginia.

That all might seem dramatic at first, but look closer at the schedule. U of L plays Pitt, NC State, at Syracuse, Miami, at Georgia Tech and at Florida State over the next three weeks.

Only one of those teams – Miami – made the most recent NCAA tournament bracket projection by ESPN's Joe Lunardi. NC State is considered a "bubble" team, and Pitt's recent wins over Notre Dame and Syracuse should move them closer to that same status.

Syracuse, which has removed itself from postseason play with a self-imposed ban, has been up and down and isn't close to the powerhouse it has been in previous seasons.

Meanwhile Georgia Tech is 2-9 in conference play and FSU has only beaten one team – Manhattan in the season opener – inside the top 75 in the KenPom.com team efficiency ratings.

Sullivan:Virginia's defense earns its rep

If Louisville is going to go on a tear in the ACC, this would be the time to do it. And sticking to what it does best is a good place to start.

The Cardinals went rogue in the first half at Virginia, losing sight of their game plan and panicking against a packed-in, dense defense, opting instead to run high pick-and-rolls and run too much one-on-one.

"We'll fix the problems that held us back in this game (and move on)," Jones said Saturday.

In the loss to Virginia, Louisville missed its last chance at a truly standout road win for its NCAA tournament resume, which is starting to round into form with just five weeks until Selection Sunday.

U of L's 7-2 record in road or neutral-site games makes up for the lack of a top-flight road win, though the 94-74 win against Indiana in New York City will be a solid one in the eyes of the NCAA tournament selection committee.

Another impressive part of Louisville's tournament profile illustrates exactly why these next few weeks of winnable games are so important: U of L doesn't have a bad loss to its name.

Close road losses to North Carolina and Virginia, two top-10 teams in the RPI, won't hurt U of L at all. Neither will home losses to Kentucky and Duke, another pair of top-10 RPI opponents.

It probably goes without saying that Louisville would do well to avoid a bad loss over the next six games and build some momentum before back-to-back home matchups on March 4 against Notre Dame and March 7 against Virginia, just before the ACC tournament.

Those two games, plus one of the more anticipated conference tournaments in the country, will give Louisville a few more chances to burnish that resume for a favorable seed in March.

In the meantime, there's no room for tomfoolery. Not against that schedule.

Reach U of L beat writer Jeff Greer at (502) 582-4044 and follow him on Twitter (@jeffgreer_cj).