Breeders' Cup start brings chaotic outcome
The Breeders' Cup Classic was created more than 30 years ago to be America's definitive race. But Saturday's wild finish and wilder start was anything but — other than to firmly establish the 3-year-olds this year are better than what remains of the decimated older-horse division.
The Santa Anita stewards met with the media Sunday morning to explain what will go down as one of horse racing's most famous no-calls, with Bayern's nose victory over Toast of New York staying intact after a messy start that completely changed the complexion of the race.
Bayern took a sharp left out of the gate, bumping Shared Belief and forcing the favorite into Moreno, who was expected to go out to the lead with Bayern. Moreno got a double whammy when soon thereafter Toast of the New York veered into him.
The stewards said that Moreno wound up eased and you couldn't logically extrapolate he'd have a much better placing after finishing 36 lengths behind Bayern. Shared Belief finished 3½ lengths behind third-place California Chrome and was not part of the three-horse swarm to the finish. The stewards found that Shared Belief, with most of the race left after the rodeo start, couldn't reasonably be expected to have finished better than fourth.
I follow the stewards' logic. Chaos happens at the start every day.
The complication is that Bayern benefited from mayhem of his own making. He compromised not only the favorite, but the horse who logically would challenge him for the lead. When that didn't happen, Bayern had a huge advantage.
Think how much tidier the outcome would have been had Kentucky Derby winner California Chrome, who finished another neck back in third and was unscathed in the melee, made up those final two feet. The actions by Bayern and Toast of New York would still be debated. But at least it would have been a winner that couldn't be accused of helping his own cause through errant behavior.
There was no satisfying solution.
Imagine the outcry if Bayern, after such a game stretch run, were disqualified to last behind Moreno. Imagine if he only was disqualified to fourth behind Shared Belief. Or if Bayern was DQed, but not Toast of New York. Or if Toast of New York (whom trainer Bob Baffert contends was the real culprit) was taken down and not Bayern.
Imagine if both Bayern and Toast of New York were disqualified. Well, at least then, you'd have the matchup the fans came to see: California Chrome and Shared Belief earning the gold and silver, even if they crossed the wire in third and fourth.
Now the question is: Who is Horse of the Year?
If I had to vote today, my ballot would go to California Chrome. He won his Derby preps, the Derby and Preakness and ran a heck of a race when a close fourth in the Belmont Stakes after being stepped on by another horse. He ran one bad race all year, sixth in the Pennsylvania Derby. And after a very long season, he ran very well in the Classic.
Had the Classic been a cleanly run race and Bayern prevailed, he'd be Horse of the Year. But with the messiness of the start, voters will look harder at his two double-digit defeats and the fact that California Chrome still beats him in Grade I victories, 3 to 2 and won two-thirds of the coveted Triple Crown.
Breeders' Cup Turf winner Main Sequence, his four wins in four starts all in Grade I races, will get support as Horse of the Year. He's deserving of male turf champion — maybe even older male champion. To me, Horse of the Year needs to run more than four times.
Voters might also suffer from turf fatigue. The sidelined Wise Dan, primarily a turf miler, the past two years swept Horse of the Year, turf champion and older male champ.
Untapable, the Kentucky Oaks and Friday's Breeders' Cup Distaff winner, also will get votes, as will Shared Belief.
Right now Horse of the Year is as muddled as sorting out the fairest ruling for the Classic.
But here's an idea: The challengers could all come to Churchill Downs for the Grade I Clark Handicap on Nov. 28 to settle Horse of the Year. I know, wishful thinking.