U of L Trend Report: Hicks progressing

Jeff Greer
Louisville Courier Journal

The way Virginia took care of Louisville on Wednesday makes it tough to rate many Cards as trending up in this week's Trend Report, but here's our best effort:

TRENDING UP

Tony Hicks: There was no doubt that the 6-foot-1 guard was on Rick Pitino's naughty list for the entire build-up to December. Not for anything he did away from basketball, but because he wasn't playing in the flow of U of L's offense. At one point earlier this season, Hicks was 3-of-17 from the field while taking a third of his team's shots when he was on the floor. Those numbers don't quite add up to good times and merriment. 

But December has been kinder to the Penn graduate transfer. Louisville has outscored its opponents by 36 points in the five games when he was on the floor, or 5.2 points per game. He's averaged a little more than 12 minutes in those five games, scoring 5.4 points from 10-of-21 shooting. Yes, his turnover rate is high – two per game – but he's made up for it in other ways. 

Pace: Louisville doesn't play Virginia again until Feb. 6, which means there is five weeks' worth of (mostly) up-tempo basketball ahead for the Cards. Not necessarily super up-tempo basketball in the vein of Kentucky's style. But seriously, anything is faster than a Virginia game. The Indiana game will have more possessions, as will U of L's contests against NC State, Duke, Florida State and Boston College. 

STUCK IN THE MIDDLE WITH YOU

Turnovers: Louisville has been pretty solid this season in terms of limiting giveaways. In fact, U of L ranks 57th (out of 351 teams) in turnover percentage on offense. Deng Adel, Quentin Snider and V.J. King lead the charge in protecting the ball. 

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Virginia teaches Louisville valuable lessons

But the Cards were uncharacteristically mistake-prone vs. Virginia. Is that due to Virginia's defense? At least in part, yeah. The Cavaliers overplay the wings and double the post. They are extremely aggressive on defense, and Louisville's perimeter players hesitated on passes and looked overly cautious in the first half. The Cards, even with more-possession games coming up, have to take care of the ball like they had been before UVA.

TRENDING DOWN

Donovan Mitchell: Louisville's hopeful star-in-the-making has struggled to break through this season, and there is a variety of reasons for that. First, the 6-3 guard isn't as assertive in attacking the lane and trying to get layups as he was last season. We've pointed it out before, but it bears repeating: 51 percent of Mitchell's shot attempts this season have been 3-pointers. Last campaign, only 37 percent of his shots were 3s.

The two main problems with taking that many 3-pointers: (1) He is making 28.8 percent of them, and (2) he is becoming a more one-dimensional scorer. When Mitchell is at his best, he is dunking, getting layups in transition, attacking the basket and taking 3s when they are in the rhythm of the offense. He has been inconsistent in that regard this season, and the result is several up-and-down performances and a dismal 3-point percentage.

Offensive rebounding: This one is to be expected as the opponents get tougher and more athletic, but Louisville's ability to get offensive boards and putbacks is what keeps the offense efficient, and the past two opponents haven't allowed the Cards to do it as much. It was always more likely that U of L's offensive rebounding percentage would continuously dip as ACC play unfolded, but the Cards aren't a good enough turnover-creating team or shooting team to make up for too much more of a decrease in second-chance opportunities.

Virginia's Kyle Guy drives past Louisville's Tony Hicks as Guy had nine points in 19 minutes of play in the Cavaliers' win over the Cards 61-53 Wednesday night.