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The Resume Returns! U of L's NCAA tournament profile

Jeff Greer
Louisville Courier Journal
  • UP NEXT: Virginia at Louisville, 7 p.m. Wednesday, TV: ESPN2, Radio: WHAS-840

The 2016-17 hoops season is in full swing, and Louisville basketball has a fun week ahead: The Cards start the ACC portion of their schedule and play their final non-conference game.

With all that in mind, we bring back The Resume, a weekly glance at Louisville's NCAA tournament profile through the eyes of the selection committee. The goal here is to assess where the Cardinals (11-1) stand in terms of seeding in the tournament field. 

It might seem early to start evaluating U of L's tournament resume, but with the committee's emphasis on a team's entire body of work throughout the season, there is already plenty of material to work with. 

THE PRIMER

The NCAA tournament selection committee has a group of specific metrics with which it evaluates teams. Let's break down specifically what the selection committee considers during the process:

What the committee members use as criteria for the selection process: Their own two eyes (the "eye test"); RPI; strength of schedule; rankings by regional advisory committees of coaches; Division I record; non-conference record; non-conference RPI; conference record; road record; injuries to key players; other computer rankings they personally consider important (Sagarin, Ken Pomeroy, etc.); special circumstances that may have affected a team‘s performance in certain games, such as weather-related travel difficulties; record against other teams that are under consideration; record against teams that are in the tournament field. (For more, click here.)

Side note: This is why I constantly tell people that the weekly top-25 polls during the season simply don't serve any purpose other than starting debates. You can be No. 1 in the country in the AP and coaches polls and get a No. 4 seed. That would be unlikely 99 times out of 100 - or maybe 999 times out of 1,000 - but it's possible.

LOUISVILLE'S RESUME

A lot will change (obviously) between Christmas and March, and seeding is not done in a vacuum, but the point here is to provide a snapshot of where Louisville is right now. And if the selection committee put together the NCAA tournament field today, U of L would be in good position to get a high seed, likely a No. 2. The Cards, using CBS Sports' handy Team Comparison tool, have a strong resume, with three RPI top 50 wins and a fourth top-100 victory.

What helps U of L even more is it doesn't have a so-called "bad loss," plus it has played a tough non-league schedule. The Cards' only defeat, a 66-63 decision at the hands of Baylor after losing a 22-point lead, is nothing to blink at, and it occurred on a neutral court in the Bahamas. Baylor, through 12 games, has the tournament resume of a No. 1 seed.

The reason the current run of four games against ranked opponents is so important for Louisville, aside from the mental and emotional impact these games can have, is that they will go a long way toward seeding. U of L started the stretch well, beating a Kentucky team that will likely be a top seed in the tournament field.

Logging a neutral-court or road win against either Indiana (Dec. 31) or Notre Dame (Jan. 4) would give Louisville's resume some serious clout before the Cards reach the halfway point of their campaign. As it stands, the win at Grand Canyon is the only true road victory, and while the committee is presumably aware of GCU's raucous home-court environment, Louisville would do well to get another road W or two. ACC play offers many opportunities for that to happen.

LOUISVILLE'S NUMBERS

Average projected seed: 2 (BracketMatrix)

Overall record: 11-1.

Conference record: 0-0.

RPI: 3.

Nonconference RPI: 3.

Ken Pomeroy efficiency ranking: 8.

Jeff Sagarin rating: 8.

Nonconference record: 11-1.

Road/neutral record: 3-1.

Strength of schedule: 10.

Nonconference strength of schedule: 10.

Record vs. RPI top 25: 1-1.

Record vs. RPI top 50: 3-1.

Record vs. RPI top 100: 4-1.

Losses to RPI >150 teams: 0.

Record vs. NCAA tournament teams (using ESPN's Bracketology): 4-1.

Last 12 games: 11-1.

 

U of L’s Donovan Mitchell (45), right, embraced teammate Quentin Snider (4)  after they defeated UK at the KFC Yum! Center.
Dec. 21, 2016