Churchill horsemen stand to benefit from Keeneland Cup

Among the winners of a Breeders' Cup at Keeneland would be the Churchill Downs horsemen.

The Breeders' Cup is a terrific event. But when it's in Louisville, it is not a good deal for local trainers and their owners — unless they are fortunate enough to have a horse running. Many outfits get cut on stalls and most of the betting revenue generated on track goes to the Breeders' Cup, which of course puts up the $24.5 million in purses for the 13 championship races.

The huge stabling commitment a Breeders' Cup requires has a significant impact on Churchill's November meet, with about 280 stalls designated for Breeders' Cup horses, including the quarantine facility. (Stall space is not an issue at Keeneland, with a backside built to accommodate its voluminous horse sales.)

But at Churchill, that means a lot of local trainers have their stall allotments reduced, forcing some to give up or turn out horses, split between tracks or head south for the winter early. Then when the Breeders' Cup horses ship out, there's not enough time left in the meet to realistically expect stables to come fill the vacated stalls.

Field sizes traditionally have not been a problem during Churchill's November meet, but they were last year, in part because of a purse slashing created by less-than-projected business for the track's new September meet.

Speaking of which: It would be extremely difficult for Churchill to have a September meet in a year the track also had the Breeders' Cup. That's because the aforementioned Breeders' Cup barns must be painted and fixed up. That would be difficult to turn around in time if you had horses in them through September.

With Keeneland as the 2015 Breeders' Cup site — as The Courier-Journal's Greg Hall first reported Tuesday, citing unidentified sources — Churchill will be one of the largest simulcast outlets for the event in the country, this time with the races shown on its new massive "Big Board." As such, Churchill and its horsemen will benefit from what figures to be substantial wagering in Louisville.

A key detail will be the dates. If the Breeders' Cup were to go back to the late October dates (Oct. 30-31, 2015) it last had in 2008 at Santa Anita, those would be the last two days of Keeneland's traditional fall meet. That would make for a huge opening day of Churchill's meet that Sunday, only 75 miles away for all the out-of-towners, many of whom will be flying out of Louisville.

A Keeneland Breeders' Cup would benefit Churchill's September meet, especially if some of its stakes are "Win and You're In" events, such as the Iroquois and Pocahontas currently are for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and Juvenile Fillies. Think about the Cup horses who might stick around for Churchill's late-November stakes, such as the Grade I Clark Handicap and the 2-year-old races.

Reverting to a dirt track, Keeneland's opening-weekend stakes will be amazing preps for the Breeders' Cup. But some trainers will want more time between races, and that's where Churchill's September stakes could fit in. (The same is true for Kentucky Downs' turf stakes.)

However, if the Breeders' Cup wants to stick with the first Saturday in November for its marquee day, as it has for six straight years now, the 2015 Kentucky racing dates requests will become very interesting — because those dates traditionally have belonged to Churchill.

It's hard to avoid concluding that the Breeders' Cup is snubbing Churchill Downs, which last had the event in 2011. If the races go back to Santa Anita in 2016 and Del Mar in 2017, as Hall reports, that means Churchill will go at least seven years between hosting. Pretty stunning considering Louisville gets the largest crowds and betting totals.

There is a lot riding on selecting Keeneland, both for the Breeders' Cup and Keeneland. The Breeders' Cup has never worked out well at a small venue relying on thousands of temporary seats — at least, it hasn't worked out well for those in the temporary seats. (See Arlington Park in 2002 and Lone Star Park in 2004.)

There are massive logistical challenges in having the Breeders' Cup at Keeneland. But Keeneland knows that and knows it has one chance to do it right. The track also has considerable resources to make it work. If not, it will be embarrassing to both Keeneland and the Breeders' Cup, especially with the best-suited venue just down I-64.

I'd bet on Keeneland getting it right.

In the meantime, the Churchill horsemen will reap the benefits without the downside of having it at their home track.

Contact Jennie Rees at 502-582-4042. Follow her on Twitter @CJ_Jennie, Facebook.com/CJJennie and courier-journal.com/racingblog.