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Nation's eyes turn to Fancy Farm for Senate race

By Scott Jennings
Ky. Senator Mitch McConnell railed against Democrat challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes at the Fancy Farm picnic Saturday afternoon. (By Matt Stone, The Courier-Journal) Aug. 3, 2013

When Kentucky's first and fifth Governor Isaac Shelby was helping future President Andrew Jackson negotiate the Treaty of Tuscaloosa with the Chickasaws in 1818, he probably wasn't thinking that the land ceded to the United States in that arrangement would someday become home to a famous church picnic and political speaking venue, complete with boisterous hecklers, costumed characters, and all the Sun Drop you can drink.

Fancy Farm, located in Graves County in Western Kentucky's "Jackson Purchase" region, will again host the St. Jerome Parish Catholic Picnic on Saturday, August 2. This event is known for its barbecue, fun atmosphere and, perhaps most of all, the political stump speaking that attracts Kentucky's elected officials and candidates. Hundreds of partisans pack the speaking pavilion to cheer and jeer Kentucky's leadership. No minds are changed, but a good time is had by all.

More national reporters than usual will undoubtedly attend this year's event, their interest fueled by a hot Senate race, a probable presidential candidate, and at least two 2015 gubernatorial combatants (maybe three!). Here's what to expect from the major players:

Mitch McConnell—Kentucky's Republican senior U.S. senator is well-acquainted with the atmosphere, which seems to grow mindlessly louder by the year (defeated Senate candidate Matt Bevin's bell ringers won't be there this year to annoy everyone). The methodical McConnell will likely snap off a barb or two aimed at his campaign's central theme—that electing Alison Grimes would hand Barack Obama and Harry Reid another vote in the U.S. Senate. McConnell won't reach for a homerun; he knows the smart play is to plow through a speech meant for the next day's newspaper instead of a stem-winder aimed at already made-up minds.

Alison Lundergan Grimes—She's gotten better on the stump since entering the U.S. Senate race last summer as the Democratic challenger and in 2013 delivered a couple of memorable lines at this event. This is a decent venue for Grimes since candidates don't take questions from the stage; she is much better scripted than not. The question is whether Grimes can avoid the kind of troublesomepressinteractions that have plagued her campaign of late before and after the speaking.

Steve Beshear — Kentucky's term-limited governor will have to be careful defending his signature issue—implementing Obamacare—while sitting next to Grimes, tagged as "Obama's Kentucky candidate" by McConnell's campaign. Still, Beshear has surprised before in his willingness to praise Obamacare in front of hostile audiences, as he did at last year's Kentucky Farm Bureau ham breakfast at the Kentucky State Fair. Beshear, a Democrat, excels in this venue and won't pass up a chance to throw a punch or two at his old nemesis; McConnell defeated Beshear in 1996 by more than 12-points to win his third term.

Rand Paul Kentucky's junior Republican senator is likely running for president in 2016, so his speech will serve two purposes—furthering his national ambition and supporting McConnell. It will be interesting to see if Paul attacks Grimes by name, a role played by former Senator Jim Bunning in 2008 when he hammered McConnell opponent Bruce Lunsford, and by McConnell himself when he attacked Paul opponent Jack Conway in 2010. Paul gets better on the Fancy Farm stump every year.

Jamie Comer— If the rumors are true Kentucky's agriculture commissioner will file as a Republican candidate for the 2015 governor's race sometime in the next few months, making this speech one of the most anticipated of his career. Comer is a folksy communicator who handles the stage at Fancy Farm very well. Expect him to serve as a McConnell surrogate in some way while previewing future campaign themes. Comer travels well, so he'll likely have a contingent of volunteers supporting his appearance.

Jack Conway — Kentucky's Democratic Attorney General and already-filed gubernatorial candidate lived through a Fancy Farm gaffe in 2009, managing to sound ridiculous while simultaneously angering picnic organizers by referring to himself as "one tough son-of-a-b****." Conway dodged a bullet when State Auditor Adam Edelen opted for reelection instead of running for the big chair, and he now looks nervously to November when House Speaker Greg Stumbo, former Lt. Governor Dan Mongiardo, and Grimes, who national prognosticators like Larry Sabato say is a serious underdog to McConnell, will decide whether to challenge him in 2015. Conway is bouncing out of a solid fundraising report in which he raised $751,000 in seven weeks, so he'll likely deliver a confident, curse-free speech mixing anti-McConnell rhetoric with his standard liberal-tinged populism.

Other people to meet — Not on the speaking roster but sure to be milling around the grounds at St. Jerome are three people you might want to meet: Andy Beshear, Gov. Steve Beshear's son and Democratic candidate for Attorney General; Hal Heiner, Republican candidate for Governor; and Allison Ball, Republican candidate for State Treasurer. The younger Beshear has impressed with his early fundraising. Heiner has donated $4 million of his own money to his 2015 campaign. Ball is a bright young attorney from Prestonsburg.

One other person to meet is Mark Wilson, who for many years has led the organizing committee that puts this event together. Please pat Mr. Wilson on the back for keeping alive a grand Bluegrass tradition, in the heart of the Shelby, er, Jackson Purchase.

Scott Jennings is a former advisor to President George W. Bush and U.S. Senator Mitch McConnell. He is a partner at RunSwitch Public Relations and advises a pro-McConnell super PAC. He can be reached at scott@runswitchpr.com or on Twitter @ScottJenningsKY.