Emmanuel Mudiay to China could start a trend
As freshmen across the nation prepare for their college basketball debuts, former five-star recruit Emmanuel Mudiay is in China, preparing for his Nov. 1 pro debut against the Beijing Ducks.
Mudiay had planned to attend Southern Methodist University this year, but in July he signed a one-year, $1.2 million contract with the Guangdong Southern Tigers of the China Basketball Association. He will collect paychecks and he will not have any homework, with his goal being to return to the U.S. for the 2015 NBA draft.
Although the NBA raised its minimum age limit to 19 in 2005, moves such as Mudiay's are still rare. But his decision combined with looming rules changes could create a more consistent pipeline overseas for young high school stars.
The NCAA is beefing up its initial eligibility requirements in 2016, and the NBA's switch to a 20-year age limit seems inevitable. If that rule goes into effect, the prospect of waiting two years to become a pro could deter some elite prospects. So this season, the basketball world will be monitoring Mudiay closely.
"If they change the age limit, it would make a lot of guys take a look," said Ed Smith, the guardian of the Class of 2016's No. 1 prospect, Thon Maker.
It remains to be seen whether Mudiay's move could signal the start of a trend, or if jumping overseas after high school will remain an anomaly. Much could depend on whether this experiment is successful.
"If the NBA institutes a two-year limit and Emmanuel Mudiay does really well in China and comes back and gets drafted and does well in the NBA," Rivals.com recruiting analyst Eric Bossi said, "I think we've got a real storm brewing."
'THERE JUST WASN'T MUCH TIME'
Mudiay is not a pioneer. In 2008, Brandon Jennings skipped his freshman year of college and played in Italy for a season. But Jennings played sparingly, had issues with receiving paychecks and struggled to adjust to cultural differences.
"He went to a club that actually wanted to win games," said ESPN analyst Fran Fraschilla, an international basketball expert. "There just wasn't much time to develop him."
Playing in college probably would have helped Jennings' development and might have made him a more familiar face for marketers. Still, he returned to the U.S. a year later and was the 10th pick in the NBA draft. Last season Jennings averaged 15.5 points and 7.6 assists per game for the Detroit Pistons.
In 2010, Jeremy Tyler skipped his senior season of high school and went overseas. He had unspectacular stints in Israel and Japan before he was taken with the 39th pick of the 2011 NBA draft. Tyler bounced between the NBA and its Development League over the past three seasons and is now expected to sign with a team in China after being waived by the Los Angeles Lakers.
"I remember when Brandon Jennings (went overseas), everyone was freaking out like, 'Oh, everyone's going to do this now,'" Bossi said. "And then Jeremy Tyler did it. 'Oh, people are gonna start skipping their senior years of high school.' But none of that ever came to fruition."
Even though Jennings and Tyler did not thrive overseas, they returned to the U.S. as intriguing prospects. There was a sense of mystery around them, and there was curiosity about whether their approaches could work for others.
Charles Briscoe, an agent whose client list includes former Kentucky star Archie Goodwin, said a prospect doesn't need to shine overseas to become a high draft pick.
"A lot of NBA teams draft on potential anyway," Briscoe said. "It doesn't really matter what a lot of these kids do in college their freshman year. If they decide to enter the draft afterward, no matter their stats, they're going to be in a pretty good situation to be taken in the first round."
THE GLOBAL GAME
According to Fraschilla, there is a misconception that American high school basketball stars should dominate in Europe. He said it's just not that simple.
Competition is fierce among high-level and high-paying European teams, and they have little to gain by investing resources to develop a player who plans to leave a year later.
"To put it in perspective, FC Barcelona and Real Madrid would beat UConn by 40 on an average night," Fraschilla said. "A top-25 player who would be signed by a team at the top European level would play very few minutes, so his development would be hurt in that regard, unless you want to go to a lower level, where you're probably not gonna make a lot of money."
But Mudiay's situation offers new intrigue. He is not going to Europe, and the league he is joining is not extremely competitive. Still, he will receive a substantial salary. Fraschilla said that as long as Mudiay doesn't "bomb," his draft stock will probably not be negatively affected.
"It's a perfect storm," Fraschilla said. "He's gonna be paid extremely well. The competition level is low, so he'll likely walk in from Day 1 and play a lot, and he'll be surrounded by enough good players that he's likely to have success. Does it affect his development as an NBA player? It could. But it's likely after one year at SMU he wasn't going to come into the NBA and be a dominant player, anyway."
Furthermore, Mudiay's stint in China could open doors. Basketball is big business there. As the NBA continues to expand its global footprint, the possibility of top American teenagers building their brands in Asia could become alluring for both sides.
For Mudiay, the combination of money, exposure and a wide-open style of play seems, on the surface, to make this an excellent fit. But players like Emmanuel Mudiay do not grow on trees.
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
Even if Mudiay ascends in China, it should not be viewed as an instant green light for other top recruits. Success overseas requires physical and emotional maturity that many teenagers don't possess.
"Sometimes guys say they want to go pro and don't realize they're about to deal with grown men, especially overseas," said Smith, who has coached in Australia. "You can really mess yourself up by throwing yourself in the middle if you're not physically ready for it."
Added Bossi: "Not every kid who's an elite talent is Emmanuel Mudiay. From a mental maturity standpoint and being ready to be an adult, I think he has the makeup to be able to handle that. Can other kids and their families take a real look in the mirror and say, 'Hey, is my kid ready for this?'"
Montverde Academy coach Kevin Boyle, who has coached players like NBA veteran Al Harrington and Kentucky center Dakari Johnson, said prospects tend to enter the NBA early because their window to generate income is limited.
The chance to play overseas out of high school could be viewed as an opportunity to capitalize financially and add a year or two to a pro career, but Boyle said that approach would be misguided.
"Sometimes you get ahead of yourself and say, 'Well, I'll have a career for 16 years instead of 14 years and I'll make more money that way," Boyle said. "That's not always true in the long run. I still think for most kids, it's best to go to college."
Smith said that if the age limit changes and playing overseas becomes an option for Maker, he'd want to be certain the elite 2016 recruit is prepared. He would not send him to Europe or Asia simply because money is waiting.
"With Thon, we speak about being ready," Smith said. "You look at LeBron James, he was ready. You have to be ready, physically and mentally, for the next step. You have to be ready to go face LaMarcus Aldridge and Blake Griffin. We'd want to make sure he's ready to do that, and not ready to go sit on someone's bench."
Adam Himmelsbach can be reached at 502-582-4372 by email ahimmelsbach@courier-journal.com and on Twitter @adamhimmelsbach